Developing an idea

I agree with your general assessment. But, while the McCain story certainly fits into a story-line about him being a warmonger, it can also show that the conventional wisdom is actually true. That is, for example, the storyline on Kucinich would be that he would pretty much never let the US go to war to defend itsel. Everytime he talks about foreign policy, he is just confirming the conventional wisdom. It's not like the attitudes about McCain really liking war are cherry-picked from a range of comments to fit what people already believe about him.

If you watch the clip, a questioner asks when we are going to bomb Terhan, and McCain chuckles and responds with the Beach Boys parody, which I'll take at face value as him thinking that bombing Iran is kind of funny. It also shows a complete lack of understanding about how he is coming across. Reverse the situation and imagine that a leading Iranian politician was asked "when is Iran going to stop screwing around and launch terrorist attacks in the US", and that candidate chuckled and responded with the Persian equivalent of the Beach Boys song. That clip would be played over and over again on Fox news, would be blogged about on Powerline etc. as evidence that this candidate is unhinged (which also supports your point about the conventional narrative).

narrative, the situation is exacerbated by the fact that many on the Left, and in the press, are scared to death of an actual war with Iran. I noticed how many focus on the Iran references in Bush's SOTU and surge speeches, to posit the idea of an impending war with Iran.

As far as the joke itself, I do think it was exactly that, and while McCain probably should've been prepared, this situation does kinda reveal the utter lack of a sense of humor of some on the anti-war Left.

Lighten up, people.

"In the world you will find tribulation, but be of good cheer, for I have overcome the world."

John 16:33

That's the best analysis I've seen of how these candidates invent the catchphrases their opponents exploit.

It was clear to me, watching the video, that McCain---who resists packaging---simply couldn't resist the chance to do his Ronald Reagan imitation. (My husband, who could hear but not see the video, thought it WAS Reagan). The Barbara Ann parody dates back to the Iran hostage crisis back in the Carter years---I'm pretty sure we used to hear it on the radio back when everyone was a lot less thin-skinned. The guy in the audience asked his "air mail message to Iran" question and McCain just couldn't hold back.

I thought it was astonishing that McCain (viewed as a loose cannon) somehow broke loose from his handlers and comported himself like a loose cannon. Of course his "joke," if that's what it was,simply confirmed what his detractors already think.

So, yeah. It's going to go on being a problem for him for exactly the reasons you suggest. I wouldn't call it a "scandal." More like a breach in a security program.

Agreed, it wasn't very funny so far as joke attempts go. But it's not a hanging offense IMO.

I also agree with the idea that the "legs" on something like this are related to how it resonates with conventional wisdom about the speaker. However, I think it's always worthwhile to look at relative effect among the disparate perspectives of the public. IOW, I end up asking the same question I ask ALOT in such circumstances: how many minds does this change?

The outrage, where it crops up, is mostly among folks in very little jeopardary of voting for McCain under any circumstances resembling the current ones. Sure, JM was once a bit of a darling with some folks who were liberal. But today? He's the biggest flag-bearer for the Iraq war around, so he's 100% persona non grata with the anti-war left. That's indisputable.

Now he's said something that, out of context, sounds like saber-rattling at Iran. This hurts him HOW, precisely?

JM has chosen his role and is further defining it. He's the biggest hawk in the room. That's his defining position. It's been amplified lately by no less than Jonah Goldberg and another conservative stalwart whose name temporarily escapes me. John McCain wants the votes of every American who is convinced that our success in democratizing Iraq is crucial and non-negotiable. In that context, how big a "gaffe" is this? Not very big, huh?

His reputation as having loose cannon tendencies is alreadly long-cemented in folks who worry about such stuff. That still leaves pro-war folks wondering whether they can risk supporting a candidate who is less hawkish than McCain. JM knows how to manage the unfolding of an event like this. He can keep getting positive mileage out of this among the people he's trying to attract by saying something like "some folks think I should be sending Iran flowers." So I don't think this touches him much. He's going to sink or swim on how his hawkishness sells. Period.