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This story about the growth in discretionary spending under President Bush is getting a lot of play in the blogosphere (see Memeorandum), but the natty graph on the left hand side of the story catches the eye and begs a question: it arrays the annual growth in discretionary outlays (adjusted for inflation) of the Bush administration versus those of the Johnson, Ford, Carter and Reagan administrations, under the head "spending by presidents since 1964; the top five spenders[.]" Reasonable minds might ask: where does President Clinton fit into this? According to testimony before Congress in 2006, the answer seems to be 2.3% annually, which would make Clinton fifth on a list of the "top five spenders" since 1964, not Reagan.
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Not so fast Simon...
The numbers in the testimony seem to be tabulated differently. While the graph states 5.3% growth during Bush, the testimony states 9.7%.
Using the ratio 5.3:9.7 from the Bush figures, Clinton would appear to fit on the graph at 1.3% growth, well below Reagan.
Intriguing. Well, I suppose
Intriguing. Well, I suppose the obvious response is that the testimony about average per year growth during an ongoing administration is necessarily date-sensitive, so theoretically, I suppose it's entirely possible that in early 2006, the average was 9.7% and has since dropped to 5.3% average as a result of subsequent reductions in spending. Still, that would be a big drop, so it's likely a combination of a different tabulation method and changes in the budget in the last twenty months. This bears further investigation, but I have to admit some skepticism that average annual growth under the Clinton administration was 1.3%.
Measurement-sensitive as
Measurement-sensitive as well. Use different measures, get different results on the leader board.
Clinton's lower number is mostly the result of the radical reduction in defense spending. There are other considerations that also make such a single-guage reading less than meaningful.
IOW, it doesn't tell us much and ignores a whole lotta things.
Chew on this
According to the current OMB data (table 8.2 on page 134) the total percentage increase in discretionary spending from 1993 to 2001 was .11%. (The 2.3% from the testimony seems to be from table 8.1, thus not adjusted for inflation.)
Hmm, .11% over eight years of divided government versus 30% over five years of united GOP rule. Quite possibly followed by years of united liberal government...
Oh, I haven't quite given up
Oh, I haven't quite given up on the electorate yet... ;)