Why Clinton Hasn't Quit

Keep thinking that, Fern. I've followed the Clintons for near thirty years lnow, long preceding their rise to the national stage, and I do understand them pretty well, and how the internal party politics works as well. It's not a game or du jour anything on this end. This is not rumor, this is reasoned and informed analysis. Among the few advantages of age are perspective and experience.

The first premise is that if Clinton's staying in when she (apparently) can't win, she IS going to get something MAJOR for so doing. Now, it's still somewhat feasible for her to win the nomination, but at this stage of the game that she could get the nomination and win office is highly unlikely. Much as I dislike her, she is one of the sharpest pols and inside players of the generation, so there IS strong purpose. Why is she still stacking votes and delegates, and costing herself (personally) millions? She WILL get something for it, and not a new hat and a thank you. It is not in her nature to do anything else if the reward is there. What does she get from continuing that she could not get without continuing?

And from the nature of Clinton, the answer is first, last, and always political advancement, additonal power and influence both official and unofficial, and a place in history with "first woman to" in front of it.

She may not be able to overtake Obama, but she can get right up to the knife-edge in delegates and popular votes, or at least close enough to keep it questionable, so between Puerto Rico and Denver she can swing much weight in writing the platform and pre-determining party leadership for the next four years. She already swings enough weight to make the convention a circus, causing massive internal party damage. The closer the final tally from delegates and/or popular vote, the bigger the stick she swings, the more reward she can collect and spread around. And in that final tally, even if still leaves her behind, Florida and Michigan WILL be counted in some fashion--and Clinton will get all the credit for it for future use.

She also knows that without her active cooperation and support, Obama simply cannot win in November. Even with her help, it's somewhat iffy, but without her it's at least 2 to 1 against. I've been involved in political demographics on the real-world campaign end for a long time, and that's one bet I do not hesitate to make.

One) By hanging in to the end of the primaries, she will stack up major cred for the next four years, and for the 2012 run; Two) By getting Florida and Michigan seated, she can reverse (for her, anyway) the downward trend of Dems in those states in Presidential elections--AND she can greatly improve Obama's chances in those crucial states; Three) She can get her campaign debts paid back--including the millions she loaned herself; Four) She can move up in party leadership; and Five) she can somewhat control the working party agenda for the next four years.

Under current circumstances, some form of increased party power and agenda control is a given. So on the "place in history" list, what specific reward would she take if not the nomination, that comes with "first woman to" in front of it? I see only two at the national level. VP, and Senate Majority Leader. VP seems very unlikely. (The DNC has already had two woman chairs, and she's not giving up her Senate seat anyway.) I do see two other possibilities, somewhat lateral moves, but I only throw them out for speculative purposes. New York City has never had a woman as Mayor, the state has never had a woman as Governor.

What you can be sure of is that Clinton will show a (political) profit from this year's race, regardless of how it ends, and that she isn't going away. Love her or loathe her, but do not ever count her gone unless you've personally seen her buried at a crossroads, garlic in her mouth and a stake through her heart, with seventeen feet of steel-reinforced concrete on top. She is the Terminator pol. She will not stop.

Some confirmation from the Clinton camp.

Clinton Adviser: She's Fighting to Last Primary

ABC News Radio's Ann Compton reports: Accusing Sen. Barack Obama of being "scared" of campaigning in West Virginia, Clinton adviser Terry McAuliffe tells ABC News Radio in an interview to air tonight that Sen. Hillary Clinton will remain in the race through the last primary on June 3rd, "100 percent."

And, of course, consider the source when reading those tea leaves as to the factional-fight angle.