The end game...

Most of the blogosphere seems to think that there are only 2 positions worth having for Sen. Hillary Clinton, President or Vice President. Her remaining in the race at this point is attributed variously to ego, self-delusion, or a desire to be the nominee for Vice President. All of these bloggers and commenters display a profound, and frankly embarassing, lack of knowledge about the less visible aspects of national party politics. Tully has already explained the real reasons why Clinton hasn't quit yet. Following the precept that fortune favors the bold, let me build on Tully's post and make a few predictions about how the end-game plays out.

Obama is almost certain to be the Presidential nominee, but that "almost" makes him a very weak nominee. He has a delegate lead of only 46.9% to 42.4%. Looking at the primary popular vote in the most favorable light, Obama leads by just 2.1% (49.3% to 47.2%). Looking at that vote in the least favorable light, Obama trails Clinton by 0.8%. In the most comprehensive tally (and estimate of the "popular vote" in caucus states), Obama leads Clinton by just 0.22%. He's lost to Clinton in most of the biggest states, as well as in many of the "swing" states. Many of his biggest victories have been in deeply Red states which he is very unlikely to carry in the general election.

If Clinton were to force a floor fight, the delegates (most notably the superdelegates) would have to make a series of very difficult votes, the outcomes of which could cause significant damage to the Democratic Party both in the upcoming general election and for a much longer term. First and foremost in this dilemma are Florida and Michigan. Without some sort of deal, they'll have to publicly vote to refuse to seat the Florida and Michigan delegates, two states they really need to win in order to win the general election. Refusing to seat them would cause long-term damage to the relationships between the DNC and the Democrats in those states. Beyond that, a floor fight forces all of the superdelegates to either vote for Clinton (ignoring the "popular vote" winner) or to abandon her, disregarding everything she and Bill have done for them over the past 2 decades and alienating women and the more moderate faction of the party. The superdelegates, particularly the governors and members of Congress, very much don't want to have to cast those difficult votes.

Much of the intra-party tension we're seeing is the on-going echoes of the intra-party fights which led to Bill Clinton becoming President. He was the "new" Democrat, more moderate, not tied to the old ways of pure tax-and-spend, looking for a "third way." Hillary Clinton has largely continued this pattern, with carefully triangulated votes on major issues such as the war. She has her liberal street cred, but in the end she has campaigned as the more "moderate" Democrat. Sen. Obama, by contrast, is the candidate of the elite (the Kerry and Kossack wing of the party) and African-Americans. He has taken an absolutist position on the war, and his voting record (scant as it is) shows him to be solidly liberal in most of his positions. That wing of the party had several key losses 2 and 4 years ago. Kerry's nomination cost them the presidency, then they lost the fight against Lieberman, and the biggest group of Democrats elected when the party took back the House and Senate were the "Blue Dog" Democrats, from the moderate wing of the party. The moderate faction (currently led by Hillary) will be forced to concede that Obama will be the nominee, but they will want to ensure that the party machinery does not pass into the hands of the liberal wing of the party, who might be inclined to not support the moderates as much.

There are 7 key party leaders: Speaker of the House, Senate Majority Leader, DNC Chair, Democratic Governors Chair, Democratic Senate Campaign Commitee (DSCC) Chair, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) Chair, and Democratic Legislative Campaign Commitee (DLCC) Chair. If Obama were to be elected President, then he and Speaker Pelosi would be the primary national faces of the party. The moderate faction of the party would have little national visibility. They need one of their own to be a major, visible player.

With all these factors in mind, here's my prediction.

After the last of the primary votes, Sen. Clinton will announce the "suspension" of her campaign (when she does that, it will be the first sign that the deals have been tentatively made). Shortly before the convention begins, she will announce that she is withdrawing and will support candidate Obama (that will be the sign that all the deals have been finalized). At the convention, Sen. Obama's people will make a very public motion to seat the Florida and Michigan delegates, as is. This will pass with the unanimous support of the credentials committee. Speakers chosen by Sen. Clinton will have about 35% to 40% of the speaking time at the convention, and close to equal time during the prime-time hours. Many of those speakers will be women; expect to see a lot of Barbara Boxer and Dianne Feinstein.

On the first night of the convention, President Bill Clinton will speak, just as he did 4 years ago. Deval Patrick will also have a prime-time speech on opening night. On the second night of the convention, Sen. Clinton herself will give the keynote address, setting a tone of "unity," while emphasizing several of her own issues. On the third night, Va. Governor Tim Kaine will speak as the nominee for Vice President. On the fourth night, Az. Governor Janet Napolitano will nominate Barak Obama to be the Democratic candidate for President of the United States.

After the election, regardless of outcome, Harry Reid will announce he is stepping down as Senate Majority Leader. In January, Hillary Clinton will be selected to replace him. Nancy Pelosi will remain speaker of the House. Chuck Schumer, a Clinton ally, will probably remain as chair of the DSCC for at least 2 more years. Howard Dean will also step down as DNC Chair and will be replaced by anybody but Bill Richardson (I jest, a bit... he will be replaced by someone close to Hillary Clinton or, if Obama wins the election, Deval Patrick). Hillary Clinton will have veto power over the selection of DCCC chair. Deval Patrick will become chair of the Democratic Governor's Association.

So there you have it. I'm on record. And man, be ready for it. If this turns out accurate, you can bet I'm going to crow about it! Feel free to make your own predictions in the comments.