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Spanners in the works

Submitted by Simon on Mon, 05/12/2008 - 11:24am
The Liberal Voice links to a couple of stories I'd seen about Bob Barr getting into the race and Ron Paul's tiny number of supporters trying to stage an upset at the convention.

I disagree with Joe and Marc Moore: I don't think these developments are healthy. Marc says that "[d]isagreement, discussion, and eventual agreement would strengthen rather than weaken Republicans at a time when the party is in what can only be termed disarray"; Joe thinks that the convention will be spiced up and more newsworthy "if Paul forces come up with some great quotes, angry followers, etc that could add the beloved conflict to what was supposed to be zzzzzz-er scripted coronation." What I'd like to know is how a floor fight over whether the Federal Reserve should be abolished can possibly be helpful? Paul and his supporters are plain loony about some issues, wrong about others, and are problematic even on the issues about which they are absolutely correct. For example: I think that the public can be brought around on limiting the size of the federal government. We have not lost the federalism fight yet; perhaps I am too optimistic, but I believe that Lino Graglia is wrong that the American people have become full-blooded larsonites, desiring for America "a 'normal' national government, able to deal with whatever it sees as a national problem, like other national governments," see Graglia, Lopez, Morrison, and Raich: Federalism in the Rehnquist Court, 31 Harv. J. of L. & P.P. 761, 785 (2008), at least, not when it is explained to them that the purchasing price of such is the end of limited government. (One salutary effect of the Bush administration is that it has made liberals friends - fairweather friends, to be sure, but on-the-record friends - of at least some constitutional restrictions on government.) But we aren't going to bring them around (indeed, may push them away) by conclusory yowling by the Paul Chorus that we need to abolish every arm of the federal government except State, Defense and Justice right now. (That's an exaggeration, but only slightly.)

So, I do not see these developments as helpful. To the contrary, it is unbearable, frankly, watching these quislings trying to shipwreck our chances in what is in any event going to be a tough election to navigate. Newt Gingrich nails it: by getting into the race as an independent, "Bob Barr will make it marginally easier for Barack Obama to become president. That outcome threatens every libertarian value Barr professes to champion." the same goes for the Paulistas who want to blow a whole in the bottom of their own hull. To add insult to injury, as Cap'n Ed points out, these saboteurs are less mass movement than jejune gunpowder plotters: "Paul has won all of 26 delegates. Even if he wangled a few dozen more through manipulations in caucus states like Nevada, at best he’ll come up with 100 delegates in a 2,200-delegate convention. That’s not a revolution, it’s a lunatic fringe," and as James Joyner observes, "[i]t would be absurd to give a guy who received less than one percent of the amassed delegates at the convention a platform for harming the party."

The primary process is a form of institutional settlement, and even those of us who aren't thrilled that the process yielded McCain as the nominee should accept the result. I can never remember if it was Hancock or Franklin who warned that we must hang together or else will surely hang apart, but it's an apt warning. Either we all pull in the right direction, or the result will be a President utterly antithetical to all elements of the GOP coalition who will take us (very possibly irrecoverably) in completely the wrong direction. If Washington had thought it better to stand and fight when victory was unlikely than to cede some territory in service of obtaining stronger ground and improving the odds of ultimate victory, I fancy we would still be taking orders from London. McCain is the nominee, for better or worse, and we should set aside the issues that we disagree on in order to defeat a common enemy. All elements of the party must come to realize this. If the price of preserving the entirety of the Constitution is a slight and temporary constriction of any one part of it (even granting, arguendo, the dissenters' premise that McCain would do so), that is a price we shouldn't hesitate to pay. Who can be thought sensible who would cede the keep in order to safeguard the ramparts?

Still, at least Paul's book will put an end to the idea that he is "the real conservative" in the race, a peculiar notion advanced by some of his supporters. Paul may be a libertarian (I don't think so), a total loon and a populist (as I think), but he now explicitly announces that he sees himself as seeking a revolution. Revolutionaries, ex vi termini, are not conservatives.

Editorial note: past experience has shown that mentioning the P word in blog posts tends to produce a flood of Paulistas coming forth to defend their man's honor. As ever, comments from unregistered users will be held for moderator approval, and comments that display some level of independent thought - including comments disagreeing with this post - are very welcome. With the foregoing in mind, however, comments that do nothing more than repeat rote cheerleading talking points from the Paul campaign will not be authorized.

Agree and disagree. EX:

Agree and disagree. EX: They're not "quislings" until they walk out and set up in competition or join the other side, but that's their right. You just don't want them back after they do it.

The intramural competition is IMHO good for the party in the long run--both that in the Dem party and in the GOP. But that doesn't mean it's helpful in achieving the short-term goals of winning the latest round of elections.

Paul does not have enough delegates even remotely available to achieve anything meaningful at the convention. He (his delegation) will at best be disruptive, while making a few ideological points, some perhaps valid. Then they'll likely stalk out in a huff, with potentially adverse results for the party for this cycle. The smart thing to do would be to ally on common grounds with the Huckabee and Romney delegates. Between them they could swing enough weight to get a few platform principles enforced, hefting about 600 delegates or so.

Clinton DOES have the delegates to bring serious weight to the convention--and will use them. As I stated in my previous post, Clinton is close enough in count that it pays her (and her faction) to fight out the rest of the primaries and play the long game even if they're certain she cannot win the nomination at this point. Every single extra delegate is crucial in that long game, so she will get all she can. They can force some party faction unification and gain a lot of concessions and some platform wight, because their faction walking out in a huff would not only damage the party, but destroy it.

I'd suggest that regardless of the November outcome (barring Clinton on the ticket and a win, which I consider very unlikely), y'all get comfortable with hearing "Senate Majority Leader Clinton."

The Paulites cannot force a power-sharing settlement. The Clintonites can. That's the difference.

Good point, Tully. Clinton has a whole lot more to work with.

First off, let me reiterate my long-standing opposition to virtually everything Paul and his candidacy represents. It amazes me that certain so-called liberals would embrace any part of his "revolution," because of Iraq. Paul represents a total rejection of the modern liberal worldview, and I wonder if certain folks aren't just drawn to him because of him being a thorn in the GOP's side, a la Nader and the Dems in 2000 and 2004. It amazes me that he has any traction at all, and as far as the damage Paul may inflict on the long-term GOP party structure, you have my sympathies, Simon, although I think you guys have more to worry about than Ron Paul, and Bob Barr.

Also, this is my liberalism talking, but, and I know an Obama presidency would upset a lot of people here, but I think the even the most hardened Republican ought to recognize that the republic, and the Constitution will survive if a Democrat takes the White House. I mean, I'd really like to see a Dem win it this time, but I could live with a McCain presidency.

Honestly, I get how important this election is, but the idea that the republic is destroyed if McCain doesn't win is the same sort of irrational thinking that Paul (and Nader on the left) represents.

"In the world you will find tribulation, but be of good cheer, for I have overcome the world."

John 16:33

me, too

Yeah, me too. Why do people think that, just because their tag includes the word "liberty" as a root means they're actually for liberty? I'm liking the comparison I've been seeing between Libertarianism and Communism. Libertarianism is as good for liberty as Communism was for communities....

Tully, I hope you're right about Clinton spending her convention shekels becoming Majority Leader. I mean, Reid's clearly MORE corrupt than either Clinton, and probably one of the least competent Majority Leaders ever. I've been miserable watching this Congress in inaction. Of course, we'll still have Pelosi, sigh.

Jon, I think you're half-right...

Reid's clearly MORE corrupt than either Clinton, and probably one of the least competent Majority Leaders ever

Having watched the Clintons for close on three decades now, the comparitive "MORE corrupt" begs the question of how you can sink below the floor without tearing out the foundation. The Clintons are more competently corrupt than Reid.

Libertarians are enraptured with a vision of a world that has never existed. Realism is not the strong point of idealists.

The one thing you can always count on with Clinton is that she will not stop until she has gained the maximum profit that she can manage in terms of advancing herself. She is the Terminator politician. She's already got enough leverage in hand to extract major concessions from the party lords, and she will accumulate more before it's over. It's vaguely possible that she could still pull off the nomination (see the Jay Cost post) but it is not possible that she can do so and win the White House at this point. Throwing the nomination to her would cause too much internal damage to the party. But she can destroy the party's (nominee's, Obama's) chances for this cycle, do untold damage just by being balky, even without getting the nomination.

The old maxim applies: They who can destroy a thing, control that thing. Ergo, she wants to exercise control over the party, and will trade that leverage for some measure of same. I'll make book on that.

Yes indeed, Clinton as Majority Leader would be a quantum leap

from what we have now, in the ineffectual leadership of Harry Reid. What an emotional black hole he is. He seems a decent fellow, but he's just so clueless.

"In the world you will find tribulation, but be of good cheer, for I have overcome the world."

John 16:33

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