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David Frum reads the Mitt campaign its last rites. I'm not a Mitt fan, but I think this is perhaps premature - that said, I suspect that if Thompson gets in, it's game over for Mitt and game doesn't even begin for Newt. Thompson will suck all the oxygen out of the conservative side just as Guiliani has sucked the oxygen out of the moderate side.
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probably, heartwarmingly ironic
Polls show Thompson ahead of Romney even though Fred's not officially in yet and Romney's been preaching and battling and working and spending. That looks like the handwriting on the wall to me.
Looks like Mitt won't be soon forgiven by socons for the insincere apostasy he adopted to become governor of Massachusetts. From way back when, I followed Romney as he first fell flat against Ted Kennedy by speaking honestly as a social and political conservative. That guy that lost? He was the real Romney. This should have been as plain as day to everyone. But few watched, and fewer remembered.
Romney learned and mastered the vague info-free parse, and he fooled everyone far too well for his own good. Now that he's back to speaking closer to his heart as his true self, no one believes him and everyone thinks he's full of crap, one way or the other. Put this tale in the politician's handbook. The lesson? Be clever, but don't be too cute. OH, and remember, you only get one conversion. Romney the rock-ribbed conservative thought he temporarily re-invented himself as a moderate. But he used up his one conversion.
No tears from me. Romney's got what he deserved. But the most amusing thing is who the rejection is coming from...
Polls show Thompson ahead of
A couple of thoughts: we keep hearing from the left that Guiliani's poll numbers have been sustained because conservatives want to support him and remember him as "America's mayor" while remaining oblivious to his social liberalism. The theory goes that those numbers will tank when people find out what he believes. I'm not sure I buy that theory, but it might apply in a similar way to Thompson: conservatives desperately want a viable candidate who isn't problematic in some way, and right now, Thompson looks like he could be that candidate. But because Thompson isn't in the race, he hasn't had to get too specific about particular policies, and hasn't had to answer tough questions about stuff like McCain-Feingold or tort reform. So his support right now is at least conceivably overstated: are the base in love with Fred, or are they in love with the idea of being in love with Fred? Ain't about you, Fred. 'Bout what they need. Question's whether when Thompson gets in and people take a closer look, he's still as good a candidate as he was an idea. If he is, Mitt's done. My suspicion's got to be that this wide open field is going to turn into a two-horse race by the end of the year (or three if McCain hangs in there and rides out his Barbara Ann moment).
I wouldn't write off Romney yet. The GOP primary still seems pretty volatile. Fred should get in so we can find out. ;)
It is too early to really
It is too early to really give a darn about the horse race. The dynamics of how the primaries will work are not even in place. Until the calendar is set and the real campaigning starts in about four or five months, then I will start paying attention to polls.
It is going to get ugly on all sides and there really has only been superficial jabs. I am actually expecting, with frontloading, that we will have some of the highest turnout in primaries in some time at the beginning.
I am in the camp that if you are not in the campaign and raising money by the end of July, you will not be able to win. All of the candidates and supposed candidates have warts. I really think that it will be whoever has the best communication methods that will survive the mudslinging that is going to occur. Just as it is too soon to write anyone off, I am not giving anyone an advantage right now.
we'll see
Candidates tend to stay in at least until the dough's running out sends them the unmissable message. So Romney's likely to keep pushing. And yeah, if Thompson doesn't get in or the bloom on his rose fades upon entry, then Romney is the only plausible guy to carry the socons' banner. Still, the failure of socons to warm up to him AT ALL so far has to be a huge cause of concern in the Mitt camp.
He just doesn't seem to anyone's favorite or first choice. He doesn't even seem to be getting any "I think Romney's pretty good too" 2nd-place kudos. I'm not seeing genuine enthusiasm for the guy anywhere. Of course, we know that you CAN win a party nom without a core of genuine enthusiasm for you. John Kerry showed this, no?
Good looks
And I would take that literally. If you look "too good" and you somehow get labelled as "superficial" you're in trouble. Maybe its better to be balding with a bad comb-over or to have a big melanoma resection scar. Call it the "Edwards Effect"