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The Gazette opines that McCain will win New Hampshire and that this is terrible news for Romney. My feeling would be that McCain will win New Hampshire, but I think that was just as likely a week ago as it is today, and the more important point is who comes in second. It's more important for two reasons: first, if Romney loses both Iowa and New Hampshire he's probably done, and second, I think a lot of conservatives (presumably other than social conservatives) are now thinking "how do we stop Huckabee;" they want a candidate, but they don't much like McCain and they're not thrilled with Giuliani. If Romney comes in second in New Hampshire, that's enough to keep his campaign alive, and people opposed to Huckabee will line up behind him; if Huckabee comes in second in New Hampshire, Romney is done and the anti-Huckabee forces will line up behind McCain thereafter, for want of another candidate. (Of course, another possibility is that Thompson will come in second in New Hampshire, in which case my bet is that nonhucks will line up behind Thompson.)
Post facto:
On to SoCal! (1/8/08)
Added: speaking of Thompson, he emails to say that
We beat expectations and the "experts" and finished third. ... I took my message directly to the people and they responded[,] and that's why we are going on to win this election. After two national debates in New Hampshire over the weekend we will be heading to South Carolina.
But I will be honest. ... The resources that we invested [in Iowa] were well spent, but have left the cupboard a little bare. We had a strong showing but we've got some more ground to cover. ... The next target in our sights is South Carolina. It has always been critical to our plan for victory. ... Television advertising is critical to our success. I need your help to make sure that we have the resources to capitalize on our momentum and take our message to the airwaves.
Is this subtle expectations management for NH? [Related: just a heads up]
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stopping the huck train
My argument at Poligazette this morning was:
"The practical question for the GOP is- who can stop Huckabee? Romney may escape with a narrow win over McCain in NH- where Huck?s populist charm won?t translate. But who can stop Huck in SC or FL? Huckabee?s base, social cons, gives him a significant plurality in any contest- even through Super Tuesday.
The only way that the Huck Train can be derailed is if the GOP coalesces around an acceptable alternative- much the same way as the Dems chose Kerry over Dean in 04 (where electability won out). That candidate won?t be Romney- but it may not be McCain either. The challenge for Mac is that many mainstream Reps dislike him. This contrasts with Kerry in 04, who was favorable to the party?s base."
Rick Moran observed that roughly half of the GOP state parties are controlled by social conservatives. If true, where does a Non-Huck get any traction? NY & NJ, for sure. Perhaps CA. But there's a lot of Red States left.
As for Fred, he fits the bill entirely except for one problem- he's sleepy.
An even bigger irony than the one Tully pointed to
It is quite possible both Parties cave to their wacky bases and we have Huckabee v Obama. Gee...wonderful. In that case, I would consider Bloomberg/Hagel. They would probably force Democrats and Republicans to come together.
America ought to do better than this given the potential consequence of the next few years. What will our report card look like a decade after 9/11? I suspect Simon is right about the outcomes, but Rudy might get some traction and a tight three-way dog fight favors Hillary on the Democratic side. If she stumbles in NH, Obama may find the South even more to his liking.
As to Fred - I don't know
As to Fred - I don't know that a certain steady phlegmaticness is necessarily the worst attribute a President could have, it's just problematic for a candidate.
As to who stops Huck in Fla. - I'd think Giuliani. I mean, we should be cautious about ruling out his "ignore the early states and go straight to the jugular" strategy. It could work. Might not. Hard to say.
FL firewall
There's always the chance- and I thought that Rudy would have a firewall in FL. But the most recent polling shows a Huck surge and a corresponding Rudy drop. Never woulda guessed it. So I'm skeptical of the firewall.