More electoral calculus

My bad Simon. I mentioned this in the open thread above before scrolling down. I think Rove's spot on. Granted, probably because he's pointing out the same states I keep looking at most curiously.

Here's what I notice, so far these days:

? When it comes to the "almost always red" and "almost always blue" states, McCain seems to have much more to worry about than Obama. Obama has leads of like 3-5% in his potentially worrisome states. McCain is in more dead heats in such states than he'd like to be.

?As I think I recall Rove pointing out, but maybe not, the fact that Obaam appears at this point to be seriously contesting Colorado and Virginia is trouble for McCain.

States I find potentially interesting:

? OHIO, OHIO, OHIO. I have a hard time seeing McCain winning without this state, both from the pure math of it, and from the bellweather PoV. Looks like a dead heat right now to me, with perhaps a tiny blue lean.

? Virginia I keep thinking that the strong military subculture will help McCain carry the day. But Obama seems to be drawing a genuine following.

? Colorado I have no way of knowing whether or not they're really ready to tip. Lots of folks seem to think they are. It;s becoming a little bit more "metropolitan" out there all the time, from what I hear. Anyone else have thoughts on that?

? Michigan Contrary to what Rove suggests, I have a really hard time expecting that McCain can cary the state, even with the likelihood of continued shameless pandering to auto workers. I expect huge turnout in MI to bring tons of union folk who'll go democratic in tough times and tons and tons of black voters from Detroit to bring a practical landslide in urban areas.

?North Carolina: I keep wondering if Obama will be able to contest here. This is state, along with Va, where you do have to wonder whether the "likely voter" models being used will match thw actual outcomes. I'd hazard a guess that the most able pollsters have adjusted these models based on primary data, especially for black turnout. Just sayin... .

? Indiana: That Obama is polling as well as has must be taken as a bad sign for McCain.

? Florida: By now we are used to this being close, even if it usually tips GOP in the end. But I have expected that Obama, being more liberal than Bill Clinton, would show a consistent but small gap. Instead, he has closed, and showed worrisome strength top McCain's team. Any resources he spends shoring up Florida with a minimally convincing "friend of the bible belt" act take away from whatever Ohio-Michigan "friend of the struggling blue collar guy" act he will need to rely on to get the votes that will bring him from 220ish to 270ish.
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I have often said, and oftener think, that this world is a comedy for those who think, and a tragedy for those who feel. -Horace Walpole