"[M]ostly it seems to be about him, his sense of destiny, and his appreciation of his own particular gifts."

...the Bill Clinton and John F. Kennedy Presidencies.

Happy Birrrrrrrrrrthday, missss-terpresident

Cengel and Jim, I think you both make good points, ones I don't really disagree with.

What I am trying to do here is make clear a hypothesis that I have. That hypothesis concerns my answer to the question "what is it that the public is likely to be hungry for if things keep going as they do?"

One thing we wonks do is look at trends that suggest little rules of thumb, like say "Governors make better Presidents" or "Governors make more appealing Prez candidates." Nothing wrong with that, but such rules tend to obscure the notion that every election is different, sort of like every snowflake. The criticism of Obama seems centered on his lack of experience. I'm just calling attention to the fact that the way things are going, the "young and fresh" brand could be especially appealing. IOW, what we wonks see as a bug may indeed be a feature.

Look under the hood? Absolutely. We all ought to make our own measure of the man or woman. Experience sure counts. But I'm not going to disqualify someone simply for lack of experience, especially if the experienced alternative seems poised to use their experience as the basis for repeating or exacerbating past mistakes. Nor will I vote for Obama because I think he talks a good game. What I get from him so far is a combination of unusual perceptiveness, shrewdness, and high intelligence. I'm stil waiting to see how intelligently he'll speak to the directions he wants to lead us on Iraq, social security, and so on. But I am at this point more willing than usual to listen. he has my ear.

Obama's charisma buys him one very important thing. The ears of the public, and a little bit of credulity when it comes to vague, nice-sounding rhetoric.

Concurrently, the circumstances of the GOP leave them with the opposite condition, the problem that they may get tuned out. People may be tired of listening to how important success in Iraq is, especially if they feel success is highly unlikely. And so they may well seriously discount even the most earnest and sober of pronouncements insisting on our original high goals for Iraq. Sort of like a coach losing his team. If you can't trade the whole team, then the coaching staff has to go, even if the coach is more right and the players more wrong.

A year from now, charisma will fall down. If charisma and looks were all that mattered, all of our elected leaders would look like the Governor of Alaska.

Maybe so. But be careful not to conflate charisma with appearance. Good looks can be a drawback when combined with the wrong personality or intellect. You can feel like an empty suit or a lightweight. Just ask Dan Quayle or John Edwards. Obama isn't especially good-looking. He has huge ears. Give him John Kerry's personality and he feels just as much like Lurch.