Kansas GOP Caucus

I went early and got in and out quickly. It was a mob scene.

I can IMHO safely predict the results before release. Mike Huckabee will SWEEP the Kansas GOP caucuses. Until Romney dropped out the result was questionable, after that it was completely predictable by anyone familiar with the local parties.

As to why, the answer is simple. Although Kansas Republicans are by and large moderates, those who control the county parties and the state party are not. They are firmly in the grip of the religious right, and they are zealous about shutting out everyone who is not beholden to them, and in turning out their True Believers in primaries. This is why moderate Democrats continually win the elections for statewide offices in Kansas. The religious right crams through a far-right fire-breather in the primaries, and al the Democrats need to do to win is run a moderate. Or even one who just talks like a moderate. Which they do, and win those offices with comfortable two-to-one margins as mainstream Kansas Republicans cross the aisle to vote against the far-right fire-breathers.

Mark my words, despite national predictions of McCain being the pick in Kansas by comfortable margins, it'll happen again today. Because the average Kansas Republican won't brave the mob scene to cast a primary ballot in a closed caucus, won't sit through the venomous and hateful religous exhortations of the faithful in a caucus, and because the evangelical churches that control the county parties will turn out their entire congregations to vote for the Army of God candidate.

I predict Huckabee wins Kansas, 2-1 over McCain.

UPDATE: Drudge and other news sources are now claiming 3 to 1 or more. WRONG. My sources (which are pretty darn good) say 5/2/1 split, Huckabee/McCain/Paul.