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Your own mileage:
For those of you who believe that the Hillary Clinton Uprising is a fairy tale concocted by a press in search of convention controversy, think again.
Hillary Clinton's seductive charms lie heavy on the Mile High City. Defiant supporters can be seen citywide sporting Hillary pins and T-shirts, in direct defiance of unity.
Nearly every event in Denver includes some unruly joker who injects her name into a perfectly pleasant discussion. Why didn't Barack Obama pick Hillary as his running mate? Why hasn't she campaigned harder for Obama? Will her supporters defect to John McCain?
So dreaded is the thought of disunity, it has been reported, that teams will be dispatched to quell any unauthorized outbreaks of irrational exuberance from Clinton supporters.
Clinton die-hards voice anger in convention protest
Defiant Hillary Clinton loyalists marched through Denver Tuesday to vent anger at the outcome of the bitter Democratic primary race in a final show of support for their beaten idol.
Just hours before Clinton was to address Democrats in a speech that party grandees hope will heal the schism caused by the nominating battle, more than 1,000 supporters of the former first lady paid vocal tribute to her campaign.
Despite the calls for a unified front heading into November's presidential election, it is clear that some of Clinton's supporters will never be able to forgive Barack Obama for his hard-fought victory.
Some Clinton Fund-Raisers Are Still Simmering
A significant number of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s top fund-raisers remain on the sidelines and unwilling to work for Senator Barack Obama, a nettlesome problem that appears to be contributing to the campaign’s failure to keep pace with ambitious fund-raising goals it set for the general election.
The lingering rancor between the sides appears to have intensified at the Democratic convention, with grousing from some Clinton fund-raisers about the way they are being treated by the Obama campaign in terms of hotel rooms, credentials and the like. Tensions were already high, particularly in the wake of revelations that Mr. Obama did not vet Mrs. Clinton or ask her advice on his vice-presidential pick.
Many major Clinton fund-raisers skipped the convention; others are leaving Wednesday, before Mr. Obama’s speech.
More broadly, a consensus appears to have emerged among many major Clinton donors that the Obama campaign did not do enough to enlist their support, according to interviews with more than a half-dozen Clinton fund-raisers.
Source: Bill Clinton will not attend Obama's Invesco speech
And this...
Clinton doesn’t mention Obama by name at private event
Ah, the sweet smell of unity...as I said, your own mileage. You already know mine.
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fanning the flames
I expect the whiff of sour grapes to dissipate quickly once the post-convention campaigns get underway. Or maybe as soon as Obama's thursday speech.
McCain supporters (y'all know who you are) obviously have a very vested interest in fanning the flames of disunity because they want to minimize the convention bounce. It will be very good for McCain if GOP folk can succeed in making the post-convention spin focus on lingering disunity.
Will they succeed? Well, they are trying their damnedest. But they are up against what I'm guessing the democrats are aiming to have be the greatest speech of Barack Obama's life. How good wil it be? Stay tuned.
If it's really, really, good, the GOP will be left with little more than this pop gun, the old:
That casts team McCain in the role of the turd in the punchbowl. Will they be tricked into spending the majority of their convention talking about Barack Obama and apologizing for abandoning their core principles while holding the congressional majority? That sounds like a recipe for a dead cat bounce.
Funniest one-liner I heard this week: "John Edwards thinks that there are two Americas. In one of them, he thinks he's single."
_________
I have often said, and oftener think, that this world is a comedy for those who think, and a tragedy for those who feel. -Horace Walpole
There's spin and then
There's spin and then there's reality. Reality is that it's going to be extremely tough for Obama to shore up his sagging numbers among key subdemographics. He's already blown that.
Hillary did a pretty workmanlike job over the last couple of months of undercutting the Obama campaign while still doing all that could be expected (demanded) of her as a loyal party member. Last night's speech was no exception. Her praise of Obama and dissing of McCain was generic and around the required minimum, and the speech was all about her. It was predictably and stupidly over the top in all the approved PC red-meat-for-the-base ways* while implicitly emphasizing "I am woman...and I got the short end of the stick". And it was very well delivered while also being eminently forgettable.
(Great joke, BTW.)
[*--Harriet Tubman? Does the party need its own Underground Railroad to escape those EEEEEEVIL Wepublicans? If Obambi loses will they flee to Canada en masse? ROFL! She's used that line before, BTW.]
bounce?
"they want to minimize the convention bounce"
Wouldn't it be necessary for there to be a convention bounce (in the positive direction) before the GOP could work at minimizing it?
:-D
:-D
thumper or clinker?
If there's a bounce, it will happen in the wake of Obama's speech. Maybe, as many are fervently praying, it will be a clinker, and there will be no bounce.
We'll see soon enough. I'll bet the house on Friday GOP spin that Obama did not do enough with it, or just a bunch of plain old "buts." But GOP partisans won't be the ones who decide whether Obama delivered a Big Papi Walk-off homer or an ARod weak double-play grounder. It'll be up to the sound bites and how the watching general public responds.
And then the GOP gets its at-bats.
_______
I have often said, and oftener think, that this world is a comedy for those who think, and a tragedy for those who feel. -Horace Walpole
It's not shaping up well for his speech...
I'm sure he will give a good one, and the tone set by Warner (presumably picked and approved by Obama) suggests he's going to try to tone down the "I am the chosen one" attitude he has previously adopted. That's smart.
But there's no way that his speech in the large, impersonal, outdoor football stadium (in front of the Greek temple/White House look-alike) is going to come across as warmly and passionately as Sen. Clinton's speech. My bet is that it will provide more grist for the McCain ads. (Those "The One"-type ads will stop fairly soon after the convention, I suspect. McCain's never put much money in them, they're mostly designed for consumption and coverage by the media... their main purpose was to puncture the air of inevitability and keep him from getting any kind of convention bounce.)
I think he's set himself up for failure (not utter failure, just sub-what's-really-needed performance) by his choice of venue.
Plus, he's in a no-win situation vis-a-vis Clinton supporters. To reach them, which he must do before they leave the convention, he must spend a fair amount of time talking directly to them, talking about Sen. Clinton, praising her. That's not the message he needs to convey to the rest of the country about himself, and it will sound more like a politician than a President.
You're certainly correct that the speech will not be a success or a failure because of the reaction of the GOP partisans... but it also won't be a success just because it sounds real purty and gets people fired up that night. The speech needs to have legs, it needs to have some substance, it needs to be able to stand up to analysis over the next few days before the GOP convention starts.
IOW, his stock stump speech
IOW, his stock stump speech that he's relied on to keep the True Believers high for months just won't cut it.
And if departs from his habitual cotton candy, he opens himself up to real engagement on a host of issues.
And oh my yes, what a lousy choice of backdrop! The imperial hubris almost oozes....
but it also won't be a
Totally disagree. I think he should avoid bogging down in details, include warm fuzzy inspirational stories, and be organized around no more than let's say 3 simple inspirational ideas that serve as preface and conclusion.
Whatever he says is going to get deconstructed by his opponents. No level of detail less than pure tedium complete with math could stop the "just talkin purty" meme. He's MUCH better off talking his purtiest ever, inspiring people, convincing them that he feels our pain, and thus casting his opponents as the turds in the punchbowl.
The setting will only matter if it's not filmed right and he doesn't rise to the occasion.
One thing you are certainly right about is that the stage has been set. the stakes are high and that may be a set up for failure. But only if he doesn't deliver.I would even go so far as to guess that there may be moments where Obama intentionally looks right at the camera.
__________
I have often said, and oftener think, that this world is a comedy for those who think, and a tragedy for those who feel. -Horace Walpole
here's a lefty who doesn't see a bounce either...
http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=7766
LOL- read the whole thing, it's hilarious. He's suddenly noticing the cognitive dissonance between the rhetoric of 'new politics' and the shouts of 'but we have to fight against the evil Republicans'.
care to make it interesting?
Well, I myself am a strong advocate of crowing while one can, so enjoy it. One alienated lefty really isn't data, though, is it?
This a.m.'s radio says that convention ratings are WAY up. And I actually tuned in myself last night because I knew Bill Clinton was speaking, and the Red Sox were demolishing the Yankees. My mileage is that he delivered big time. The morning newsradio reports (granted, it was Blue Rhode Island Radio) picked some great sound bites, and reported that viewership for this convention is WAY up from 2004.
How's that augur, with Obama due to make his acceptance speech before a giant roaring crowd? Say what you want about Obama, but the guy is putting @sses in the seats, and the crowds are loving it. It pains me to continually note this, because I admire John McCain, but by contrast McCain is having trouble even raising his voice without looking weak and a bit used up.
No one ever seems to want to talk about this last point. I guess its impolitic. Or maybe partisans are under orders not to feed that meme, because it is so obvious that giving it any legs whatsoever could cripple the campaign.
I'm just calling it like I see it. On the one hand I see images of big enthusiastic crowds cheering on a young, vibrant. articulate, inspirational figure.
On the other hand I see smaller quieter crowds in front of an old and not especially forceful or insirational figure. I can do that math pretty easily.
________
I have often said, and oftener think, that this world is a comedy for those who think, and a tragedy for those who feel. -Horace Walpole
You're right that I was only
You're right that I was only pointing to one data point (posted the link mainly because I was amused by the scales falling from that bloggers eyes, not because I was claiming his views as representative) but there are others on the left who are similarly concerned. Neither of us knows, of course, how this will all end. You reference the enthusiasm gap, which is pretty inarguable. I can then point you though to the gap between the generic Democrat/GOP polling and the Obama/McCain polling- which is only becoming larger as the campaign goes on. Instead of closing the deal, Obama is opening more doubts and skepticism as time goes on. We'll see how it plays out on election day though, won't we?
for sure
Oh, for sure. I have seen signs here and there suggesting hat a noticeable contingent of usually democratic-leaning moderates are at least kicking the tires on McCain. And I have no problem with that. As I have said many times, I think both guys are better than any of the candidates I have had past chances to vote for. At least in the sense of how I felt about the candidates at the time when I was casting my vote.
Still, I can't help but notice what the current state-by-states show. Which is that, current trends notwithstanding, most of the really close margins are in the states where McCain really needs to get at least 3 out of 4. Now, I go by past results in thinking that when push comes to shove McCain will win CO, VA, FL, and quite possibly OH. But those states are within a point or 2 either way and have been for some time now. While at the same time all of the usually Blue states that could go red have been hovering around a 4 or 5 point lead for Obama.
And yup, if things keep swinging as they have, that could change in a matter of another week or two. But currently, I see the wisest estimate about the range of possible results that McCain's best case is to win with 270-280ish EV, while Obama, if he swings 3 or 4 from the list I mentioned, could capture 305 or 320 or more EV.
In other words, there's what the trends are suggesting right now, and there's what the current numbers are still saying. Feel me?
_________
I have often said, and oftener think, that this world is a comedy for those who think, and a tragedy for those who feel. -Horace Walpole
Good speech
I've never been much of a Hillary fan (not because of any particular policy issue. Having said that I thought it was one of her better speeches. The intro film was a bit uncomfortable "Uh ohh... who's the nominee anyway!?" I did feel like she was more supportive of Obama as the nominee of the Democratic party as opposed to the specific candidate. But the reality is, we'll have to see over next few weeks in which direction the Hillary supporters move.
I struggle watching the conventions, feel like huge infomercials. The coverage is different but not much better. Having said that, there seems to be something "flat" about this convention.
Chris
Oh, definitely!
But the reality is, we'll have to see over next few weeks in which direction the Hillary supporters move.
Oh, definitely! It's all about what really happens, not what we think should happen. What I'm saying is that Hillary certainly didn't exert herself to push her people at Obama last night. In terms of "push" she was neutral to negative while still going through all the required dance steps and giving a good generic convnetion speech.
As I've been saying for months, if she were going to push for him in a meaningful way, she would already have been out doing it in a pretty heavy way. She hasn't been--she's done about everything she could to NOT help while still doing her party-duty checklist.
the chances that the shoe will be on the other foot in 4 years
What are the chances that the shoe will be on the other foot in 4 years? Suppose for the sake of argument that a high enough percent of hardcore Hillary supporters end up lukewarm enough to stay home, or unimpressed enough to swing to McCain. What would make a really big difference, 5%, maybe 10%, or 20%?
The best personal reason for Hillary to be as lukewarm as she has been is so that she can run and win in 2012. But if Obama loses, she'll have to overcome the wrath of disgruntled Obama-ites. That makes it a questionable gambit. (And yeah, I do think of the Clintons in terms of gambits and strategies, I believe their actions tend strongly towards calculation). Obviously, her other option (to come out hard and enthusiastic) substantially diminishes her future oval office chances.
Which is why this gambit makes sense. But in addition to the likelihood of lingering resentment from the liberal base if Obama loses, there's also another possibility. If Obama wins while knowing that Hillary wasn't really rowing the party boat, her power is going to be diminished. And sure, she'll still have power, but if she decides to engage in public struggling against a charismatic President, My money bets that she is the one most likely to end up looking shrill and graceless. Huge charisma deficit there.
True that. However, if Obama strengthens and starts to show signs of pulling away, Hillary is smart enough to grab a baton, run to the front of thr line, and yell "parade."
__________
I have often said, and oftener think, that this world is a comedy for those who think, and a tragedy for those who feel. -Horace Walpole
Methinks you overestimate
Methinks you overestimate the attention span of the voting public.
She did what she had to do well enough that no one can really fault her, yet in a way that minimized any actual assistance to Obama while still showing her sterngth and that of the DLC faction. It was a masterfully crafted speech, and as calculated as credit card compound interest.
Mickey Kaus described it...
Mickey Kaus described her speech as like throwing a party, having a good time while you're at it, but waking up the next morning you start thinking about all the people who didn't show up, and you get annoyed in retrospect. It was no accident that Hillary specifically stated that Michelle Obama (who couldn't have looked less gracious if she tried) would be a great First Lady but never said that Obama would be a great President.
always possible
That's always possible Tully. I don't think it's hard to do.:-)
However, Hillary is a flawed figure with high negatives, not an untainted woman with substantial grace and charisma.
And let's not forget how loudly all you folks at SF have been ringing the bell to alert us to the especially high level and wide spread of hero-worship of Obama by his followers. I'm not talking about the attention span of the voting public, I'm talking about the ability of true zealots to carry a long-term grudge.
__________
I have often said, and oftener think, that this world is a comedy for those who think, and a tragedy for those who feel. -Horace Walpole