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Doesn't Thompson raise certain problems too?

Submitted by Simon on Wed, 03/28/2007 - 6:20pm

Matt Yglesias has a post talking about Fred Thompson's prospects in '08:

[T]he generic conservative Republican the GOP wants to nominate is a generic conservative Republican governor ... It is absolutely, vitally crucial to the Republican Party's electoral prospects to obscure its basic slash-and-burn mentality, and that means people with a Gingrich-era voting record are no good. ... Thompson managed to be in the Senate for decent stretch of time without developing any signature issues or anything -- there's nothing to define him but his voting record.

To be sure, when the cheetah starts offering the gazelle restaurant reccomendations, you have to question the motivation, but there's a grain of truth here, which is that the conventional wisdom holds that you want to nominate someone with executive experience to be President. Certainly I tend to agree with that, and my impression is that Republicans have been big on this conventional wisdom in the last couple of years, bolstered by the instrumental value of that argument in this time when most of the pool of Democratic Presidential hopefuls are Senators (Clinton, Obama, Biden, etc.), which makes it a handy weapon against the other side (and, of course, against McCain). It seems to me that this is an argument that we've been on the right side of, historically - but Yglesias does raise the unfortunate point that it at least mutes the force of a weapon we've wielded to good effect before.

Ideally, if course, you want a governor, but the mayor of New York is sui generis, which pole-vaults Giuliani into the running, and I suppose Newt is sui generis in and of himself. So where does Thompson fit into this? I suppose there's a certain appeal about having a non-politician candidate, which as I read it is the card Deval Patrick played up in Massachusetts to some effect. But as Yglesias points out, Thompson isn't exactly a non-politician at all: like any Senator, he has been for many things before he was against them. Such is the nature of being in the Senate - it's a rich seam to mine. There's certainly an argument for having a non-politician candidate, but is there an argument for having a sort-of sort-of-not non-politician candidate?

Ultimately, I think the main thing going for Thompson is that he's seen as a conservative who can win, just as the main thing going for Guiliani is that he's seen as a strong leader who can win. Certainly the base would be a lot more comfortable with Thompson, but he does seem to have a few problems, and I'mnot convinced that at bottom, he's got a better shot at the White House than does Guiliani. I'm certainly not opposed to Thompson, and I guess I'd certainly put him in the pool with Newt and Michael Steele of great potential veeps, but as a top of ticket contender it just gives me an niggling, ineffable feeling of settling.

Related:
Fred Dalton Thompson weighs his options
Rudy on Judges III
Why 270 is the magic number and Ohio is the magic word
More on '08: Newt talks to Fortune, NRO talks up Rudy
Just a thought

Politics is all about

Politics is all about settling. (Except economists call it "satisficing," because it has more syllables and sounds obscure.)

precisely

Right. Socons seem to agree that "someone has to do it. " If you agree with that, then you have to take the best available applicant. Otherwise you're waiting for Godot. Or the next Reagan.

See, you want to fall head over heels. You want the next Reagan, but RR's romantic mythology grows with every real-world candidate who can't escape the ever-growing shadow. remember when he turned water to wine, and taxes to growth.... . :-)

I think Thompson has a good personna for the role he's being asked to play.

Oh, it doesn't mean "next

Oh, it doesn't mean "next available." It does mean you will likely settle for less-than-ideal, because odds are great that ideal will never arrive.

Waiting for Godot? More like "Waiting for the Electrician, or Someone Like Him." (Bonus points for getting the reference without googling!)

As a democrat, none of the

As a democrat, none of the current Republican crop scare me, except maybe Mitt Romney, but I really don't think he will make it through the primaries. I think Rudy will be a terrible candidate for national office--his combativeness may have worked well in NYC (for his first term at least), but I think a lot of Americans not from the northeast will be turned off. Americans seem to like a the "nice guy who also won't take any s##t from anybody" (e.g., Bush), and not someone who comes across as just a jerk (e.g., Giuliani). Plus, Giuliani's STRONG point appears to be foreign policy, the only problem being that he has exactly zero foreign policy experience.*

Thompson is certainly interesting, but I'd like to see how far to the right he is going to go to try to win the nomination.

*[Disclaimer: I am almost always wrong in my predictions as to who will make a good candidate, but that's not going to stop may from making more predictions.]

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