Another Palin meme dies on the vine

Palin not a member of AIP

Her husband was a member however. But I don't think this dog will hunt.

The other obvious flaw lies in the inductive move from the particular to the general, which is an invalid step in ANY probability extrapolation not involving certainty of outcome in all branches.

Since neither abstinenece-only or "regular" sex-ed lead to 100% success rates in preventing teen pregnancy, one cannot extrapolate from the fact of pregnancy which type of sex education was received.

It's also important to separate abstinence-promoting sex ed from abstinence-only. Program design is crucial. In "mixed" programs success rates (measured in pregnancies and STD's avoided, and initial age of commencement of sexual activity) have generally been higher than in programs at either extreme. Also, a positive correlation between programs including a strong abstinence emphasis and high-school graduation rates has been noted.

Causation is however unclear there. Boosters claim it as an unambiguous result of the content type, but cynical old analysts such as myself note that many abstinence-only programs tend to be voluntary alternatives and thus have a major element of self-selection (more-involved parents are more likely to make that choice) and to involve greater positive adult-child mentor relationships that extend beyond the normal school day (the programs overlap with mentoring for at-risk youth). Both of these factors by themselves are strong factors against early sexual activity.

By the time a child hits driving age, the effects of sex ed have begun to wane, and by time of high-school graduation very little difference if any can be found in outcomes (pregnancies, STDs) between program-type groups.

All of which leads to the roundabout conclusion that keeping teens from getting knocked up before they hit senior year makes them more likely to graduate. Duh.