Finals Time: NATO's ISAF Assumes Responsibility for Military Operations in Afghanistan

Quietly, without fanfare or noise, NATO's International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) assumed international responsibility for counterinsurgency and reconstruction operations in southern Afghanistan from the US-led Coalition (Combined Forces Command - Afghanistan). Under this arrangement, ISAF now has authority over military operations in the north, west, and southern provinces of Afghanistan, while the Coalition maintains responsibility for the "eastern" provinces (Paktika, Ghazni, Bamyan, Maydan Wardak, Logar, Khowst, Nangahar, Kabul, Parwan, Laghman, Kunar, Nuristan and Panjsher). Make no doubt about it, this is a tremendous step forward for a NATO alliance that has-- from inception-- been defensively-oriented and prone to inaction in a world that seemingly requires expeditionary operations more than ever. While, in a sense, this move appears to be window dressing (the forces in southern Afghanistan are mostly British, Canadian, and Dutch who will now merely report to a different three-star commander, from American LTG Karl Eikenberry to British Lt. Gen. David Richards), it really marks a tremendous departure from previous traditions. Even in Kosovo, which was fought under a NATO banner, the US Air Force provided more than ninety percent of the resources needed to influence Milosevic's regime-- and that was in Europe's backyard. Afghanistan really is different.

French reporter Leon Bruneau, surveying the Afghan landscape in the south and noting the active insurgency that British forces have encountered in Helmund, argues that this is NATO's "moment of truth"-- noting that Europeans prefer to see their militaries used for "peacekeeping" and not counterinsurgency, Bruneau writes: "Given hostilities in the south, where insurgents have made hit-and-run attacks across the Pakistani border as new troops moved in, NATO could be drawn into fighting that exceeds its mission." Ron Synovitz of Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty notes that NATO has drawn up its most highly permissive rules of engagement yet for the ISAF mission:

Indeed, the rules of engagement for NATO troops in Afghanistan have been expanded dramatically beyond those of a peacekeeping mission. Appathurai says NATO action will be "robust." And he notes that NATO commanders have the authority to order preemptive strikes if they deem it necessary.

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Some experts say NATO is now announcing more flexible rules of engagement because the Taliban is stronger than the alliance thought it would be when planning for the move into southern Afghanistan began -- and stronger than U.S. or NATO military officials have been willing to admit.

The deployment is going to be a monumental test for Europe. Anti-governmental forces in Afghanistan-- from the Taliban to Hekmatyar's Hezb-i-Gulbuddin (the "HIG"), Al Qaeda to the consortium of recalcitrant warlords and narco-traffickers-- are going to test European resolve at every opportunity. They're going (and, in fact, have already started) to take the fight to ISAF, inflicting casualties with Improved Explosive Devices, intimidating the local population with terrorism and fear, and do whatever they can to cause the Europeans to question the mission in the hopes of eroding the support for the first (and in many cases, most important) battlefield in the War on Terror. This is the strategy of the insurgents-- they know they cannot defeat us on the battlefield, but they also know that they don't have to; if they can sap our political resolve at home, if they can defeat our will to continue the fight, then they can drive us out of the fight and establish conditions more favorable to their long-term victory. It is a tremendous test.

If Europe passes this test-- if they can weather the heart-rending presence of their soldiers coming home in coffins-- then it truly is just a matter of time before the enemies of Afghanistan will find themselves defeated; on the other hand, if the casualties and damage elicits the response the enemies want, then the ISAF experiment will die a very slow and tragic death, betraying the people of Afghanistan to a future where the anti-government forces will only be emboldened to continue ever more attacks. I'm no prophet, but I truly hope that our fate lies in the first instance. If it is the second, the world is in far worse shape than I could have imagined.