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Whatever
The people of Venezeula are voting on the future of their nation. Regardless of the true result, we can only hope that their votes actually count. Chavez has been giving off signals that the result-to-be-reported has been pre-determined in his favor, regardless of what observers and the actual polling results say.
Final polling numbers:
In early claims purportedly based on exit polling, both sides are claiming clear victories. Pray for the people of Venezeula.
More info at Caracas Chronicles and The Devil's Excrement.
Previous: The Moment of Truth in Venezeula
UPDATES:
The early word from two Venezeualan correspondents is that the NO vote has won. I am unable to assess the claim. Also in the rumor mill is that the government has withdrawn scheduled post-election advertising from several media outlets, and that government sources are claiming a statistical tie from both exit polling and early returns. REPEAT: I am unable at this remove to assess the truth of any claims.
Second-hand reports from Venezeula are that the NO vote has won but that the government will announce a SI victory. See above disclaimer.
Globovision reports that CNE (the state election agency) is refusing to release any returns "until 90% of the vote has been counted." Chavez has apparently cancelled his scheduled press conference.
Reuters is backpedaling from their earlier "Si wins" announcement based on government-reported exit polling to re-phrase as "government ministers report victory." FWIW. Unconfirmed: The head of a major polling form has told CNN that the exit polling by his firm being cited by the Chavistas was never conducted.
The live Globovision feed is here. In Spanish, of course.
More sources are saying that NO is ahead by up to 8 points on the spread with over 90% reporting, but CNE is continuing to refuse to report. Reuters is shading even more. See disclaimers above.
More reports of 8% win for NO vote. Reports that Chavistas are trying to figure out how to lower the [reported] margin to save face. Other reports that the military told Chavez that if it wasn't close he WOULD accept the results--as would they. New report that the National Guard is surrounding CNE "for safety purposes." The new Reuters headline is "Chavez Leads Tight Vote, Officials Say." Sounds like the lead-in to a concession.
10:14 central: current reports are that CNE is speaking to both sides. Unofficial and unconfirmed report shows NO! leading SI! by 6,534,648 to 5,864,560 with over 90% of returns in, a difference of over 5%. New Reuters headline "Venezuela in tight vote on Chavez's powers". Heh.
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Well praying might not matter
I'm pretty angry Levin declares his contempt for Chavez the weendend of the vote. Was it too much to ask for Democrats to support the Republican's indignation over Chavez's behavior? What it too much for the Liberal Side to stand up to transparent tyranny? Well, I guess if Democrats can't accept any good news from Iraq, why worry about Chavez?
Had Chavez not been able to use his government's power to influence the vote, send masked thugs into the street, threaten Columbia and the US while actually crying over CNN reports of his pre-mature assasination, this probably would be a clear nyet. The No votes above are about as good as his tabulators which I trust 100% less than Diebold. I don't think Chavez will allow a no to pass. He'll blame the US.
The Devil's Excrement is exactly what Chavez delivers.....
Prayer always matters, and it may be Venezuela's only hope.
It looks like Hugo is alreafy prepared to overrule the "No" vote no matter what happens, and shred up what's left of the Constitution, and solidify humself as Castro II. I hope I'm wrong, but as Tully said, it's almost impossible at this juncture to asess the varacity of any claims about the results.
Had Chavez not been able to use his government's power to influence the vote, send masked thugs into the street, threaten Columbia and the US while actually crying over CNN reports of his pre-mature assasination, this probably would be a clear nyet. The No votes above are about as good as his tabulators which I trust 100% less than Diebold. I don't think Chavez will allow a no to pass. He'll blame the US.
The Devil's Excrement is exactly what Chavez delivers.....
True enough. God help us all.
"In the world you will find tribulation, but be of good cheer, for I have overcome the world."
John 16:33
If it were not at least very
If it were not at least very close at this point, if it were clearly running in their favor, the Chavista government would already be reporting results. They are not.
Totally agree Tully
Reuters reported earlier, Chavez wins by 6%, but they were the only one. Thank you for your update. It appears Chavez isn't very happy at the moment. I hope these latest reports are right. Word gets out that he actually lost, he's in trouble. His neighbors willl not accept outright tyranny. Not Argentiana, Brazil or Columbia. The closeness is what makes me so angry about feeble western press months before the vote. It is very close, making more grievous the lame effort by Levin and others, including Europe. Hell, it took the King of Spain to tell Chavez to shut up. AP didn't wake up until last week and the NYT had quite a pathetic take. France, which abhors Ahmadinejad, said what? Where was the cry about no European monitors? All Chavez needs is it to be close. Then he can fudge things and declare a victor. The God of oil must come down.
The poor are helping Chavez. Our founding fathers had the same suspicions and feared what Washington would be able to do with the people's adoration. Fortunately Washington was no Hugo. Chavez's government held back news of inflation until Sunday. Let's see how the poor benefit. Oil sold for $10 a barrel when Chavez came in and now its $100. That allows Chavez to bribe up popularity so he can be king until he's 95. It allows Putin to rescue his formerly tarnished image. It allows Ahamdinejad to build nukes.
So we learn two things. We need to extract that Canadian oil and make alternative energy practical. Second, we should use our influence to promote real democracy everywhere, especially in our backyard and pay attention to events before they spin out of control.
For what it's worth Raf, I have prayed that Chavez loses, if for no other reason than to affirm to myself the seriousness of the world's blights we leave to future generations. Chavez stealing the election will mean the opposition will increase. They know they were cheated. He will use his new powers to oppress them blaming the US and continue to grab Castro's mantel. Then will come Putin's arms factories, more patrols past his neighbor's borders and eventual use of his uranium fields. The coalition against the US (and our confused allies) is forming. Putin, Assad, Ahamdinejad, Chavez, with numerous proxies in Lebanon, Belarus, Sudan, Somalia and a world of Bin Ladens and orgainized crime form quite an affront to Liberal Democracy. I wonder tonight, how many Americans care.
Wait until Chavez spends more of the poor's money on Iranian missiles that reach 2000 miles. Two-thirds of America believe in Hell. Well, I doubt two-thirds pray tonight that Chavez loses. One sad Church probably prays he wins.