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Pushing the first domino

Submitted by Simon on Thu, 08/14/2008 - 10:48pm

Over at the Corner, Rich Lowry reports that a friend of his wants immediate admission to NATO for Georgia and the Ukraine. He's not the first person I've seen make such an argument - but do these people not realize that accepting Georgia into NATO means that under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if Russia did something deemed to be an attack on Georgia, we would be de facto at war with Russia? I am at a loss to see how this can be sound foreign policy when, as recently as eight months ago, "Russian strategic forces included 682 strategic delivery platforms, which can carry up to 3100 nuclear warheads" to our shores.

Washinton warned in his farewell address, that we would do well "to steer clear of permanent alliances with any portion of the foreign world; so far, I mean, as we are now at liberty to do it ...[L]et those [existing] engagements be observed in their genuine sense. But, in my opinion, it is unnecessary and would be unwise to extend them." I cannot help but think that there is much wisdom in that.

What makes Rich's posting particularly ironic is that his colleague Peter Robinson posted earlier in the day on the same blog, quoting Thomas Jefferson's harmonization with Washington: "Our first and fundamental maxim must be never to entangle ourselves in the broils of Europe." Robinson cuts the quote off too early, though. Jefferson went on to say - this is from an 1823 letter to James Monroe - that America "has a set of interests distinct from those of Europe and peculiarly her own. She should therefore have a system of her own, separate and apart from that of Europe. While the last is laboring to become the domicile of despotism, our endeavor should surely be to make our hemisphere that of freedom." This, too, remains vividly relevant today. Indeed, Robert Kagan once understood this, writing in Of Paradise and Power that "[i]t is time to stop pretending that Europeans and Americans share a common view of the world," or that we necessarily have common interests; that makes his seeming insistence earlier this week that we do all the more mystifying.

There's much to be said for telling Russia to back off, and generally aligning with Georgia. But in my view, there's nothing at all to be said for recreating the sort of domino chain that dragged all of Europe into war by the force of one attack in 1914.

Had Georgia been in NATO the

Had Georgia been in NATO the attack would likely not have occurred, but letting them in ex post facto will not make it unhappen. Bad idea.

Right, plus....

Georgia, while having high hopes for the future, is hardly a fully modern nation at this point. While we're fairly certain the Russians are lying when they accuse the Georgian government of any kind of ethnic cleansing, the fact is that Georgia as a whole has not been a free and functioning democracy for long enough for us to be ABSOLUTELY sure of that. If anybody were to accuse some other NATO member state of that kind of conduct (within its own borders, not discussing its military forces abroad), we would have absolutely no doubt that it's a vicious lie without any basis in fact at all. And those societies as a whole are free enough that cameras and witnesses would be found in abundance to discuss what was really going on. Not so with Georgia.

Because of this, we should not pledge to go to war to defend them. Notwithstanding a variety of quarrels I have with France and other countries in "Old Europe," they (the current members of NATO) are such an integral part of the Western world in general that I would indeed consider an attack on them to be an attack on us and our interests; we cannot long survive as ourselves if the major nations of Western Europe were to come under the dominion of dictators and thugs. But we can survive without a free Georgia, however undesirable that state of affairs may be. We should not be pledged to go to war on their behalf automatically.

One qualification

If anybody were to accuse some other NATO member state of that kind of conduct (within its own borders, not discussing its military forces abroad), we would have absolutely no doubt that it's a vicious lie without any basis in fact at all.

One qualification to add to that: Turkey and the Kurds. If a credible source asserted that the Turkish government was ethnically cleansing their kurdish population, I don't think that could be dismissed out of hand.

"When someone says their heart needs lifting, don't ask how come, ask how high."

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