Official in Venezeula: NO!

Official results from CNE are that NO wins. Rumors are running wild about attempted vote-rigging or coup by Chavistas, but that's the official announcement. CNE says the trend is not reversible. Unofficial reports follow earlier reports that the result may have been negotiated to narrower margins for Chavez to save face. Preliminary reports were 5-8% NO win with only 10-12% unreported.

Congratulations to the people of Venezeula, and may the results stand.

OTOH, Reuters has not conceded as of this time. :-)

UPDATE: There's the Reuters concession!

Unofficial numbers reportedly from inside CNE sources continue to show a much higher spread. Chavez's concession speech is sounding ugly. He's lecturing the opposition, even warning them. But the official report stands--he lost. See linkage below for checks & balances in the voting system.

Morning Updates and linkages:

News agencies that should be ashamed of themselves for cheerleading and prematurely declaring a "victory" for Chavez (That photo above is for you!): Reuters, Sky News, China News, Al Jazeera.

Hugo's concession speech reportedly ran two hours. I went to bed when he started on the coffee in the first fifteen minutes--an indicator he would be thrilled with his own voice for quite a while.

Caracas Chronicles says Hot Tally sheets will indicate how accurate the CNE tally is. The overall numbers reported by CNE are considerably lower (both spread and total votes) than the unofficial reports. Student pollwatchers gathered "total vote" numbers at 27,000 polling places, which can be compared to the reported total votes. See next. One cannot assume that the early reports were accurate, and despite the natural cynicism regarding Venezeulan polling, there IS a checks & balances system.

Daniel at Venezeula News and Views has more roundup from Caracas. And Quico has some choice words on skepticism and a primer on the checks & balances in the system. His general take: Fraud is possible, but it would be visible. So if the totals were adjusted to save face for Chavez, it should be fairly obvious. Likewise, if the spread closed drastically in the last states/polls reported, one can make a fair assumption that someone tried to pull the classic "packed poll" late return--and it wasn't enough. See below.

The Devil's Excrement has the official CNE percentages.

Tweaking my suspicions about the accuracy of the vote totals is this paragraph from AP:

Opposition activists were ecstatic as the results were announced shortly after midnight - with 88 percent of the vote counted, the trend was declared irreversible by elections council chief Tibisay Lucena.

The reported final spread of well under 2% on the first ballot question is not even remotely "irreversible" at an 88% count. With 11-12% of the vote open, strong returns from one state could overwhelm that difference. A margin of 5%+, OTOH, is indeed pretty irreversible in such a close vote. This is roughly the difference between the remaining ballots needing to go 55/45 to close the gap, and needing to go 75/25 to close the gap. The first is somewhat possible, the second is not. Even to get from a 5% spread at 88% returns to an under-2% spread at the final count requires some seriously unbalanced totals in that final 11-12% of the ballots. IF that occured, it would indicate but not prove a classic "packed poll" attempt.

Gateway Pundit: Doing the Marxist Slide-- Venezuela Votes on Chavista Rule... Update: CHAVEZ WINS!... Update 2: Maybe Not?... Update 3: CHAVEZ GOES DOWN!!