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Let me get this straight....

Submitted by Pat on Mon, 06/29/2009 - 3:41pm

Let me get this straight... it's vital that we not interfere with the internal affairs of Iran, when its citizens peaceably assemble to protest their government, and their government slaughters them. But when the Supreme Court and Congress of Honduras declare that their President has acted unlawfully by seeking to unconstitutionally extend his term, which would make him a dictator-for-life, essentially, then it's appropriate for the President of the United States to take a very public position on a complex point of Honduran constitutional law, calling the actions of the Supreme Court, Congress, and Army of Honduras "not legal" and a "coup"?

Only a blind man could fail to see that Zelaya was planning to rig a plebiscite to declare himself President-for-life. The Honduran constitution specifically prohibits that, and in fact declares that any person who even attempts to remove the 2-term limitation on Presidential office-holding immediately loses the right to his office. They've seen that happen before in other Latin American countries.

How is what President Obama has said anything other than supporting a potential dictator over the actual democratic institutions of Honduras? Say it's a complicated issue. Say the U.S. wants nothing more than a peaceful outcome. Say that the U.S. is concerned both by Zelayas' refusal to abide by the rulings of the Honduran Supreme Court as well as the actions of the Supreme Court, Congress, and the military. But don't pick THE WRONG SIDE and give them aid and comfort. If Germany had deposed Hitler in 1934, would we have worried about the legalities, or been grateful that a man clearly intent on becoming a dictator had been thwarted?

I agree Pat. Maybe the

I agree Pat. Maybe the President is worried, since he seems to be in favor of adopting international legal principals, that the precedent is being set that would allow the US Supreme Court to order the US military to stop some illegal actions he has planned. ;)

I've defended Obama's handling of the Iran situation for the

most part, and I still do, but it does seem weird that Obama was so willing to intervene here. I'm no expert, but this Zelaya seems like another Chavista, or at least a left-wing version of Alberto Fujimori (who executed a self-coup). It's been argued by some that Obama's not really for Zelaya, he's just trying to strike a middle path, but who knows.

The situation in Honduras isn't what it seems based on the headlines.

Very odd

I've been neutral to positive on the administration's foreign policy so far, but this latest is just plain Wierd. On the face of it seems that Obama and Hillary are opposing a country following both its constitution and its populace's wishes, if not outright supporting a dicatorial takeover of a country. Given the situation in Latin America, their support of "Mel" is directly against what I would think almost everyone would agree is in the USA's best interests both morally and economically.

It's like a NO BRAINER folks. I gotta be missing something big here. Some of the possibilities I've come up with:
1. There is some sort of underlying deal here that isn't out in the open. Beats me what it could be.
2. Obama is making policy based on opinion generated by the press - who seem to be representing this as a coup - and is clueless to actual facts.
3. Obama is planning on extending term limits for the POTUS here in the USA and this screws with his plans??
4. The combined IQ of the Administration and the State Department is <=40.

I try not to be snarky here at SF, but I really don't get this one. The facts are pretty obvious to anyone that bothers to do more than listen to the TV. I mean WTF? I've never ascribed ill intent or stupidity to the Obama administration before, but this defies logic. Can anyone tell me what I am missing here?

As the resident Obamaphile here, I'm always willing to give the

benefit of the doubt, but it really looks like the Administration has misread the situation here. The only real coup that took place was by the former President, who apparently tried to install himself as dictator-for-life, and the military, via the consent of the legislature, had him removed, and replaced with the next in line.

Again, I could be totally wrong on this, but this looks embarassing.

can only speculate

I can only speculate. Perhaps the government is privy to information that the military group that would take power would either be much worse for Honduras or more hostile to US interests, or both?

Or perhaps its part of a frightened insider view that given the iffy nature of the global economy, any increase in the number of nations experiencing serious civil unrest is a bad thing.

Not trying to make any excuses here. I currently have no useful knowledge which allows me to be anything like sure about which side is worse. Although I cheerfully agree that on the surface its a bad thing for a President to trend towards dictatorship, I am not so naive as to assume that a military coup will lead to a superior state of affairs.

Facts, and a conjecture

It was not a coup in any sense of the word. The military was orderd by the supreme court of Honduras to remove him. The congress blocked his move to circumvent both them and the election council by trying to illegally extend the single 4year term limit. In other words the democratic government did it's contitutional job. The USA should do so well in a similar situation.

And Obama seems to have sided with the dictator. I say again -- WTF??

I've done mental gymnastics to keep an open mind on a lot of Obama's foreign policy moves that looked to be iffy, but I don't see how this can be spun in a positive light. Where's Hillary?

thanks

Thanks Dennis. So then who exactly is in charge right now, nominally speaking? The court that ordered the removal? The military that did it? Some emergency council that kicks in?

Hillary really hasn't been very prominent on any of these FP dust-ups has she? What's up with that? I know she broke a bone, but where's her voice?

What constitutes interfering?

And what if you don't want to strongly support the protestors in Iran because you think it would make things worse for them?

I think the situation in Honduras can go either way, based on what I've read. It seems Zelaya was attempting a non-binding referendum on whether or not to convene a constitutional convention to put political pressure on the other branches to do something about their partly immutable constitution. Whether or not that means he has to be forcibly shipped out of the country, I don't know. Whether or not that means martial law and media shutdowns I think is pretty clear. And Obama's reaction is hardly unique in the international community.

Well....

In Iran, it apparently would have been interfering to denounce the violent repression of dissent (at least until public pressure became so great that President Obama had to say something).

In Honduras, the President took a legal position on a rather difficult point of Honduran constitutional law. That's "interference." That Hugo Chavez and the usual suspects at the U.N. are also in favor of a wanna-be dictator-for-live is hardly surprising, and certainly doesn't mean that President Obama is correct.

Look, the Honduran Supreme Court, the Honduran Congress, and the Honduran military ALL agreed that the Zelaya had disobeyed the law, had refused to heed the Supreme Court's judgments, had broken the law by firing the heads of the armed forces because they refused to obey his illegal orders (the illegality of which had been confirmed by the Supreme Court). They replaced Zelaya with a member of the SAME political party, not some opposing party rival.

In response to that action, Hugo Chavez has threatened, basically, to invade Honduras. That threat by itself provides some justification for keeping a tight lid on things for a week while things cool down... and I haven't seen any reports at all of any sort of serious repression of protests or media.

The Honduran Constitution clearly prohibited exactly what Zelaya was trying to do... because the people who wrote it, and the Hondurans who voted to adopt it, had seen this before. The constitution specifically says that a public official who even advocates for the repeal of the term limits prohibition has forfeited his right to office.

What do YOU think that the other 2 branches of the Honduran government should have done, when the president made crystal clear is intention to ignore the law, to fire any military officials who refused to obey his illegal orders, who was trying very clearly to continue in office despite the limitation imposed by the Honduran constitution? Should they have waited until he had purged the military of all those in favor of real democracy (as opposed to the Chavez newspeak version of "democracy") and imposed his changes by force or through rigged elections?

This is one of the most disgusting moments I've ever seen in American foreign policy. I can understand cautionary notes and not endorsing the exact means that the Honduran Supreme Court and Congress and their military chose to use, but to criticize them (and declare them "not legal") while saying NOTHING about Zelaya's refusal to accept the rule of law as it applied to him and his "referendum" is disgusting, truly disgusting.

President Obama has a sympathy for leftist dictators. That's the only reason I see for this bizarre action.

Well, I guess I'm going to have to be the guy that says that

this seems more foreign policy ignorance at work in this situation, rather than leftist dictator sympathy. Call me naive if you must, but I think Obama totally misjudged this scenario. He violated his own rule about careful consideration.

As to Iran, again I still think Obama managed to hit all the right notes, albeit with less outrage than many would have preferred, which considering the abundance of misdirected outrage in Honduras, is just weird.

But Rafique...

When "mistakes" are all consistently in the same direction, they start looking less like mistakes and more like conscious policy decisions. And so far, the President shows no signs of backing off his "mistake" with the Honduran situation.

How many times has President Obama used the word "democracy" in any of his foreign policy speeches? He appears to single-handedly decided that promotion of democracy is no longer part of American foreign policy.... he's renouncing not just the means that President Bush used to promote democracy, but the end itself.

I have not criticized him particularly for his handling of Iran. I think he should have been a bit more out-spoken in favor of democracy (I've never been a big fan of the "realist" foreign policy, whether practiced by Republicans or Democrats), but I agree he should not have jumped front and center into the fray. But the only consistency in his stance on Iran and his stance on Honduras is that his actions lend more comfort and support to dictators and potential dictators rather than to people promoting democracy and the rule of law. He hasn't even, so far as I've heard, criticized Chavez for his threats to invade Honduras.

Pat, he brought up democracy four times in the Cairo speech.

He's used it before, so I'm a bit vexed by your assertion there. As a matter of fact, I'm no realist either. I'm a liberal hawk, and I've made that clear elsewhere. Cautious diplomacy doesn'r make you a realist, although Obama does have some realist impulses (I think he's a liberal internationalist at heart, though).

As to your other point, I just don't see the pattern. I don't count that non-dust-up with him saking Chavez's hand. I just don't see that as really relevant.

...one of the most disgusting moments...?

Seriously? Right up there with Iran-Contra? Okay.

President Obama has a sympathy for leftist dictators. That's the only reason I see for this bizarre action.

Well, that seems a bit extreme, but, again, okay.

What do YOU think that the other 2 branches of the Honduran government should have done...?

I'm not sure, but there are lots of possiblities that don't involve a forced trip to Costa Rica.

...and I haven't seen any reports at all of any sort of serious repression of protests or media.

Here's an article I found after 3 seconds of googling:

Honduran army smothers media after coup

http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSN29399379

I disagree

Well, you want to denounce the 2 branches of government (plus the military) which acted in the face of a clear and adamant refusal to obey court decisions by Zelaya. You seem to be supporting President Obama's declaration that their actions were "not legal." Why? Do you disagree that Zelaya was breaking the Honduran constitution? Do you disagree that he was planning to try to gain a second term for himself in violation of the Honduran constitution, and to amend the constitution without going through the proper amendment process called for by that constitution?

As I said, perhaps they could have handled it better, I certainly don't know. But the universal and immediate condemnation by President Obama and Hugo Chavez's allies at OAS is bizarre, considering the illegal actions and contempt for Honduran law shown by Zelaya.

As for the media repression, certainly I never condone such. But I'll reserve judgment for a week or two, until things calm down, to see if the new government (and remember, the new acting president is from the same political party and has pledged that the presidential election will continue as regularly scheduled later this year) plans to engage in serious repression, or is merely trying to keep their country from exploding in flames caused by the uninformed or ill-willed agitation of the "international community."

I don't have a subject line in mind, but here's my comment.

Do you disagree that Zelaya was breaking the Honduran constitution?

As far as I can tell, he was.

Do you disagree that he was planning to try to gain a second term for himself in violation of the Honduran constitution, and to amend the constitution without going through the proper amendment process called for by that constitution?

My understanding is that there is no proper amendment process allowed on the restriction on presidential terms in the Honduran constitution. But let's be specific about a purely political, non-binding referendum on whether or not to amend the constitution. Again, that's my understanding. If his referendum was intended to directly amend the constitution, that would be another thing, if not an undemocratic one.

Frankly, I don't know how appropriate Obama's statements are. I just think at this point that reasonable people can disagree and that it's not so clear cut. And it's absurd to think this is "one of the most disgusting moments in American foreign policy." You don't have to like it, but c'mon.

Their constitution...

Their constitution makes it illegal to even seek an amendment to that portion of the constitution. We may or may not like such a provision or find it in accordance with our own First Amendment, but they are a different country with different needs from ours. Past experiences in that region show a pattern of dictators who are democratically elected... once. That's why they put that in there, to guard against it. The referendum was illegal, whether "non-binding" or not. The Supreme Court said so. Zelaya's own Attorney General said so. The Army refused to obey Zelaya's orders regarding the ballots, and he fired the head of the Army and sought to distribute the referendum through other means (while the constitution provides that the Army is responsible for distributing election materials). The ballots themselves were printed in Venezuela, because they were illegal, and the entire process being ordered by Zelaya was illegal, as was determined by both their Supreme Court and every single other component of the Honduran government.

It was in fact one of the most disgusting moments in American foreign policy I have ever seen. President Obama saw a government taking very difficult actions that were necessary to prevent their country from returning to being just another Central American banana republic led by a thug claiming to be the only hope for his people (cult of personality), and said: "The United States of America is siding with the other guy."

The referendum was illegal,

The referendum was illegal, whether "non-binding" or not.

I get that. That's why, when you asked whether or not I disagreed that Zelaya violated the Honduran constitution, I replied, "As far as I can tell, he did." But there was still a big gap you were glossing over.

The real problem I have is that you can't back off of "It was in fact one of the most disgusting moments in American foreign policy I have ever seen." When you write "...I have ever seen", maybe you mean as it was happening. If not, and you mean anything you've become aware of in real time or after the fact, how would you compare Obama's statements to, say, the Bay of Pigs or Iran-Contra?

I didn't say "the," but "one of the"

I didn't rank it above the Bay of Pigs. I thought Iran-Contra (which I am old enough to remember watching as it happened) was not good, but hardly "disgusting," from a foreign policy stand-point. The scandal involved internal U.S. issues, the provision of arms to the Nicaraguan Contras in possible violation of a prohibition against same. I dislike trading anything of value for hostages (especially arms), but I don't find doing so "disgusting."

Here, President Obama has helped stir up and foment trouble for a legitimate, democratic government (the president is most emphatically NOT the entire government) going through an exceedingly trying time, in a region of the world known for political instability, while an undemocratic neighbor, in the form of Chavez, has been actively trying to destabilize the forces of democracy in order to promote a form of dictatorship. Rather than appeal for calm and peace from both sides, President Obama chose to pick a side, fanning the flames of instability. I do indeed find that "disgusting." That mass bloodshed has not broken out is a testament to the sensibilities of the Honduran people and their resistance to the outlaw actions of Zelaya. But President Obama's declaration of the actions of the Honduran Supreme Court, Attorney General, Congress, and military as "not legal" provides support and some moral authority to those who might consider taking violent action in response to the arrest of a clear criminal.

Would it have been better, in an ideal world, to merely arrest him rather than arrest him and take him out of the country? Perhaps, but we don't live in an ideal world. In the real world, the continued presence of a man like Zelaya can inspire his supporters to violence.

Can you find any statement by President Obama denouncing the actions of Zelaya, declaring them to have been "not legal"?

P.S., on an administrative note...

WHQ, as a long-time and valued commenter, would you mind registering on the site? Because of spam problems, we have to have an approval queue for comments from unregistered users, and so your comments don't show up until one of us actually clicks to approve them. That's not a huge problem when we're having a back-and-forth like today, but it can sometimes cause long delays in comments appearing, if Simon or I aren't regularly checking back. While our software system asks for your e-mail address to do so, we don't do any mass mailings and certainly never sell or otherwise give out that address to anybody. Thanks!

Registered

I'm finally somebody!

Yay!

Thanks for registering, WHQ... it's about time!

Here's something from Kevin

Here's something from Kevin Casas-Zamora, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. He was vice president and minister of planning of Costa Rica from 2006 to 2007.

An illegal referendum has met an illegal military intervention, with the avowed intention of protecting the Constitution. Zelaya's civilian opponents, meanwhile, are celebrating. For the past week, the Honduran Congress has waxed lyrical about the armed forces as the guarantors of the Constitution, a disturbing notion for Latin Americans. At the very least, we are witnessing in Honduras the return of the unfortunate role of the military as the ultimate referee in political conflicts among civilian leaders, a huge step back in the region's consolidation of democracy.

That's why Zelaya, though he bears by far the greater responsibility for this crisis, must be reinstated in his position as the legitimate president of Honduras. The Organization of American States, the neighboring countries, and the U.S. government (which is still enormously influential in Honduras) should demand no less. They should also call upon all political actors in Honduras to take a deep breath and do what mature democracies do: allow the law to deal with those who try to step outside it. If Zelaya must be prosecuted for his harebrained attempt to subvert the Honduran Constitution, then let the courts proceed as rigorously as possible. And the same applies to the coup perpetrators. If Honduras is to have a decent future, its politicians and soldiers, in equal measure, must learn that the road to democracy and development runs through the rule of law.

Take particular note of For the past week, the Honduran Congress has waxed lyrical about the armed forces as the guarantors of the Constitution, a disturbing notion for Latin Americans. when discussing presidents becoming dictators.

He certainly makes a strong argument...

Casas-Zamora certainly makes a strong argument. It's not the one that President Obama made, however (he made no argument at all). I'd also note that Casas-Zamora continues to refer to this as a "military intervention," without discussing the added complexity that the Supreme Court ordered the arrest. He certainly doesn't discuss the actual language of the Honduran constitution which, as I understand it, actually makes the military responsible for, among other things, conducting the elections.

While I agree that it is generally dangerous to have the military as the defenders of one's democracy, it is hardly unheard of, and has been successful in maintaining larger freedoms elsewhere. For example, Turkey would almost certainly today be just another Islamic theocracy or dictatorship if not for the occasional military coups (and I continue to maintain that nobody should be calling what happened in Honduras a "coup").

"Democracy" is not an end in itself. The purpose of government is to protect the freedoms of the people, to help them "effect their Safety and Happiness":

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. — That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, — That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness.

We cannot, thusly, entirely divorce the process from the goals being sought. At times, the use of an inappropriate process may, by itself, be wrong, regardless of the end being sought. At other times, however, the merits of a process cannot be judged without reference to the ends being sought. If reinstating Zelaya increases the odds that freedom in Honduras will ultimately be subverted, as it has in Venezuela, then it would be wrong to do so, given the clear illegality of his actions and his demonstrated refusal to obey Honduran law. To insist on his return to Honduras, without conditions, is to value the process in and of itself, regardless of the end result.

Obama certainly aludes to the

Obama certainly aludes to the argument made by Casas-Zamora (and mentions democracy to boot). I'm logging off now. Nice corresponding with you, Pat. I'll seriously consider registering. Thanks.

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Well, let me first of all speak about the coup in Honduras, because this was a topic of conversation between myself and President Uribe.

All of us have great concerns about what's taken place there. President Zelaya was democratically elected. He had not yet completed his term. We believe that the coup was not legal and that President Zelaya remains the President of Honduras, the democratically elected President there. In that we have joined all the countries in the region, including Colombia and the Organization of American States.

I think it's -- it would be a terrible precedent if we start moving backwards into the era in which we are seeing military coups as a means of political transition rather than democratic elections. The region has made enormous progress over the last 20 years in establishing democratic traditions in Central America and Latin America. We don't want to go back to a dark past. The United States has not always stood as it should with some of these fledgling democracies, but over the last several years, I think both Republicans and Democrats in the United States have recognized that we always want to stand with democracy, even if the results don't always mean that the leaders of those countries are favorable towards the United States. And that is a tradition that we want to continue.

So we are very clear about the fact that President Zelaya is the democratically elected President, and we will work with the regional organizations like OAS and with other international institutions to see if we can resolve this in a peaceful way.

http://www.america.gov/st/texttrans-english/2009/June/20090630115721emffen0.2634655.html&distid=ucs#ixzz0K2oAg0IJ&D

Not one statement...

Not one statement, at all, in that entire statement by President Obama about the clearly illegal actions of Zelaya. Additionally, he refers only to a "military coup," without noting that the Honduran Supreme Court, Attorney General, and Congress were all in support of the action, and that the Supreme Court ordered his arrest. No, President Obama speaks as if the President IS the government, the entire government.

This was not a "coup." The President was not a dictator, and thus replacing him (with a member of his own party!), in accordance with a court order and the opinion of Congress and the Attorney General, did not overthrow the government of Honduras. While Wikipedia is hardly a definitive authority, note that it's explanation of a "coup d'etat" speaks in terms of replacing a ruling government, not any particular head of government or head of state. The government of Honduras was not replaced. A particular office holder was arrested. That's it. By describing the arrest, under court order, of the individual holding the office of President of Honduras as a "coup," President Obama was in fact picking a side, and it's not the side of long-term freedom and democracy.

I can see your argument

I can see your argument regarding the characterization of the Honduran situation as a coup, though wikipedia includes it in their list of coups, despite the Honduran situation's not quite meeting wikipedia's coup definition. You could say it's semantic issue, but I do think the approval of the rest of the government and that Zelaya was not replaced by a military officer make this, if a coup at all, a very atypical one.

I can't say why Obama thus far has presented this so one-sidedly. I'm not good at understanding political strategy when it comes to such public statements. The advantages or disadvantages of presenting things a given way frequently have to be pointed out to me, and even then it's not always clear to me how such things work. If I find an explanation that seems to make sense, I'll be sure to share it.

hey WHQ

Long time, no viddie.

FWIW guys, your argument/discussion went a long way towards helping me figure out what was going on there, and the issues involved.

I won't comment further, in the interests of leaving this discussion in what feels like a useful and settled state.

hey bucyrus

Nice to "see" you again.

It's getting more coup-like.

If this is true: The mayor of San Pedro Sula, Rodolfo Padilla Sunseri, was replaced by the nephew of Roberto Micheletti, according to what has been reported by various activists to TeleSUR news.

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