What to do about North Korea

It is looking more and more like the explosion in North Korea yesterday may have been a dud. If it was a dud (as opposed to a fake, an intentional use of conventional explosive to fool the world), then I fear that may make the situation in the region worse rather than better. The most dangerous dictators are those at risk of losing face, for it is the public belief in their infallibility which is the root of their power. Even if Kim Jong-Il can keep the truth from his people (which he probably can, so tightly controlled is the country), he knows that the rest of the world knows he failed in a very public attempt. That makes him, I fear, an even more dangerous wounded tiger.

So, what to do about North Korea? Sean Aqui has a thoughtful post up at Midtopia about the problems facing us in confronting North Korea. Avoiding political blame-gaming, he addresses several of the most-discussed options available, highlighting why each of them is, shall we say, less than optimal.

His proposed solution is to put indirect pressure on China by encouraging Japan and South Korea to strengthen significantly their military forces. China, he reasons, won't want an arms race in that region, and it has a very unpleasant memory of a strongly armed Japan. The threat of such an arms race should lead to China putting sufficient pressure on the regime of Kim Jong-Il to back down from its nuclear ambitions.

I think Sean is on the right track. Limited strikes against North Korea targetting their nuclear machinery just aren't an option; the risk of a full-out invasion of South Korea is too great. Sanctions have proven not to work. The only sanctions left to apply is for the South to cut off their food aid, and that also poses a great risk of war. Of course, if war inevitable, better before they have functional nukes than after.

China has not put its best efforts into containing North Korea. They don't want a nuclear NK, but they haven't brought the full amount of pressure they can bear onto the regime. Threatening them with the stick of a rearmed Japan might make China work on the matter whole-heartedly.

Do read all of Sean's thoughtful post. Hat tip: Donklephant.

UPDATE: In the comments, Walrus refers us to another excellent analysis of potential solutions, from Spook86 over at In From the Cold. His proposals are a bit more aggressive and slightly less dependent on Chinese cooperation. Well worth reading. He also touches on the loss of face issue raised above in noting the recent failure of a North Korean long-range missile test. It's worth noting that no country, not even North Korea, is completely monolithic. There are other factions of power, and these very public failures may prove sufficient to undermine Kim Jong Il's rule.

UPDATE: Just to remember what we're talking about here: