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The Great Global Warming Swindle

Submitted by Tully on Fri, 03/23/2007 - 9:29am

You've heard about it via news reports*, now it's available via YouTube. I haven't had time to fact-check it through, but on a first run-through it's incredibly more accurate and fact-based than Al Gore's apocalyptic puff piece and includes tons o' stuff that the Goracle swept under the rug. It runs an hour and fifteen minutes.

There's also Channel 4's web page, for those who are more text-oriented.

[*--Or maybe not. Quick Google and Yahoo searches turn up NO news reports from ap.org or reuters.com on the film. You'd almost think that someone in the MSM was trying to suppress dissent on the subject...]

brave

Brave of you to leave the comments open, you irredeemable corporate tool! :-)

You, sir, are...

You, sir, are an anthropogenic global warming denier... you will soon be shunned.

While I was looking forward

While I was looking forward to seeing this film, the style annoyed me and I didn't find it particularly effective as I got the sense that the film was trying to be polemical at the expense of accuracy--kind of like how I feel when I watch a Michael Moore film, but not as bad as that (especially when talking about the impact on Africa and the third world, which I happen to know a bit about). Googling about this film didn't give me much confidence in it either:

http://comment.independent.co.uk/commentators/article2359057.ece

I think there is a good film to be made about the debate, but unfortunately, this isn't it.

NOTE: I have not seen the Gore film, so I'm not saying that Gore didn't do the same thing. FURTHER NOTE: My comment has nothing to do with the science, but with the debate

I wasn't very impressed with

I wasn't very impressed with either film, but being familiar with the science involved I know which one is much much closer to fact than fiction, and vice versa. Or I wouldn't have bothered to post it, other than to mock it. It is indeed polemical and somewhat simplistic, but not nearly as tendentiously idiotic as Gore's apocalyptic propaganda absurdity. Both films, however, present the polar extremes (no pun intended) of the debate. Both claim certainties that don't exist, neither represent the true state of the research.

For a better "read" of Dr. Wunsch's views without the sound-bite editorialism he complains of, Justin, try here. In the letter you link he's mostly complaining about being quoted out of context to support a "denialist" extreme he does not support, which seems a somewhat valid complaint on the face of it to me. He seems a bit hyperbolic about it...some speculate there's a reason for that. (And frankly, the cartoon is somewhat on target.)

There's a LOT of ground between "We have NO effect on climate" and "The world is going to end and it's all OUR FAULT!" The truth is we probably do have some small effect on climate, but that effect is much less than natural forcings and variability. And there's not a lot we can do about climate change but adapt to it. To have even a small effect on affecting climate change would require catastrophic social engineering, at a cost much greater than adaptation strategies. Barring quantum leaps in technology, that is.

Foresight is an adaptive feature of human intelligence

This is a quite different position. In fact, your expert says that public policy must be based on probabilities, especially when "proof" concerning human modification of climate is a ways off. He goes on to say there is a high probability humans are already effecting the temperature. I really do not see how you deny the warming effects already in Greenland. I think to answer Simon's question just add other green house gasses into the mix besides CO2. Really guys, how can you think such massive injection of carbon into our skies (among other things we are doing) will not degrade our environment (from a human point of view)? By 2050, experts predict 10 billion people. What is your expert opinion as to how many humans this planet can sustain given the rate they pollute? The idea we should wait until oceans bloom with fish and oxygen-killing sulfur bacteria, temperatures rise and weather patterns become more violent is hardly the prudent thing to do. Again, I do not understand why one would be opposed to cleaning up our act. Certainly, you would agree that waiting for the sky to fall will leave us zero options. Such large scale events can not be fixed by short term technical solutions like artificial volcanoes injecting sun- reflecting gases into our upper atmosphere. Yep, I don't get it. And yes, the world was covered with ice at one point. Is that good for us? No. There was no Van Allen Belt several times. Was that good? No. Hell, if an asteroid comes at us will some argue it happened before so don?t worry? No. Foresight is a precious human quality. Yes?

MY expert? Heh. Wunsch

MY expert? Heh. Wunsch offers a policy opinion that is antithetical to science, which is why one should always take scientist's policy opinions with a bushel of salt. And Palmer's career and income depend on alarmism--but I won't get into the personalities involved, other than to note the difference between facts and opinions, and point at the rules link.

The fact is that CO2 forcing is a minor factor in climate change, and human CO2 contribution is an even smaller factor. We could indeed do a great deal to knock down global temperatures--but it's a "riding the tiger" thing. You don't try to ride the tiger until you know how to dismount. But if you want to argue the science, Max, first you have to know the science. The popular chatterhead BS doesn't cut it.

You're right. You don't get it.

again

It has been a long week for me. I picked this up out of reflex as I was leaving because your position struck me as NOT TULLY. I was surprised. For now, I will spare you other more accepted scientific opinions regarding climate concerns. I didn't think much of either W and P, but at least they recognized the importance of probabilities when clear "proof" will be evasive for a long time. Kind of like "proving" smoking causes cancer and illness, right?

Scientists should stay out of policy? The only policy I see W and P implying is that given the probabilities we are affecting temperature and the task of riding such a beast so difficult, we ought to move to correct before riding is futile in the time frame required to tame the tiger. The world seems in agreement, yes? If experts say over-fishing is causing a dangerous decline in fish populations (based on sampling) and suggest quotas, they should bud out and let politicians decide? And what if the politicians decide to FISH MORE? Those damn scientists should still shut up, yes? Perhaps we could set out some positions so I know where you stand. Then I can formulate a reply. When I return I will try to keep it straight and narrow. What are the probabilities I can do this based on your scientific observations?

1. Do you believe that human activity has raised the temperature?

2. If yes and CO2 is the major culprit, are you aware of solutions such as Norway?s carbon sequestering extraction of natural gas from sea rigs?

3. Are you aware of the numerous "fixes" that are presently available? (I know you are)

4. Given the rate of population growth, do you think the trends will get worse?

5. Can you site a consensus of scientists who think human activity represents a minor role in temperature increase and ice melting?

6. Was there an international outcry over the unfounded assertions in Gore's movie, or is Hollywood's embrace the kiss of death for you?

7. If the tiger is huge, should we be doing something now or shall we wait for NASA to build a super volcano to spew sun-blocking gas into the upper atmosphere?

8. What I don't get is what would constitute sufficient "proof" as opposed to "probabilities" which would ring your alarm bell? The North Pole and Greenland breaking up and the water rising several feet? How about more fires due to increased temperature?

9. Would such proof be like waiting for Iran to actually field nuclear tipped ICBMs, or shall we use probabilities and pre-empt was is most likely (but not yet fact)? What is the yardstick for policy (probabilities or "proof") and what establishes the seriousness of competing issues (abortion v global warming)? That's actually related I believe...

a starting point before you answer

I've always thought this was a sound position to begin with regarding climate change. Perhaps it will color your response. Perhaps you agree.

heh

For now, I will spare you other more accepted scientific opinions regarding climate concerns.

No, you'll pretty much spare me eternally unless you've a great desire to be abused. Part of my real-world functions include methodological review of things like the IPCC reports for realistic impact assessment and cost/benefit analysis. I don't need any more popularized opinions from politicized researchers defending their funding. I can read their research, I can see the factors and the uncertainties involved, I can get a massive chuckle out of the inherent problems of meta-modeling, and I can spot the enormous areas of unknowns that overwhelm the knowns.

Nor do I answer to "shotgunning," as you well know. But if you're interested in the actual research basis, go to here and get cracking. When I first received my copy last May, I laughed my way all through some of the chapter summaries (I think I sprained a rib on Chapter 8) but much of the actual research (which you would have to trace back through the foonotes and references to find the actual peer-review papers, and then track down and assess independently of the IPCC) is quite fascinating, and is produced by hard-working scientists who are well aware of the limitations of their work, know the bounds of it, and don't overclaim it. They know the diff between facts and opinions. Kudos to them.

Hint: When you see such phrasing in summaries as "To date, it has not been possible to quantify how errors in a model?s simulation of specific climate observations impact on errors in its future climate projections," that translates as "We have constructed an officious-sounding opinion that will keep the funding coming, but we really haven't a clue how accurately predictive the models are."

An even bigger hint is when they start stating probability range assessments in vague terms rather than in numbers, and then start aggregating such studies. For a simplistic example of why this cracks me up so much, see here.

I guess the point it raises

I guess the point it raises that I'm most interested in reading some more about - and would like to see a refutation of by global warming proponents - is the gore-baiting observation that while CO2 levels track temperature levels, the rises in CO2 trails rather than leads temperature rise. That's a lethal point, because it's an empirically-verifiable point, and I can't see how the "CO2 drives global warming" thesis can survive it.

Arguments, theories and suggestions - heck, thought experiments, even - taken on any point, supported by evidence or not.

Justin - This is your

Justin - This is your opportunity to get in some points free from Tully's usual evidentiary requirements. ;)

Not unless he wants to delve

Not unless he wants to delve into specifics of the IPCC draft report and the underlying research and modeling. The summary is not acceptable--it's a political document that actively misrepresents the draft report itslef.

I'm interested in seeing

I'm interested in seeing anything - any idea - that salvages global warming from this chink in its armor, evidence or not.

Here's the RealClimate post

Here's the RealClimate post (hopefully the link doesn't get removed!) on temperature leading CO2. Their argument is based on the premise that temperature and CO2 have a positive relationship:

When the ice core samples show temperature leading, it means that something else (it's unclear what exactly) caused temperature to start increasing back then, which then eventually (800 years later) caused CO2 to start increasing. CO2 levels rising have a positive feedback effect and then cause a greater increase in temperature after that point.

Choice quote: Some

Choice quote:

Some (currently unknown) process causes Antarctica and the surrounding ocean to warm. This process also causes CO2 to start rising, about 800 years later. Then CO2 further warms the whole planet, because of its heat-trapping properties.

How could we ever doubt?

Real Climate comment on film

(Editor)--I followed the link left here by an anonymous Canadian poster to the Real Climate site. Having found a fairly uncritical acceptance of Gore's propaganda film, even praise, and having noted that the site is, despite claims of objectivity, decidedly politicized, I deleted the link. Those interested in reading through the Real Climate site can find it.

For the best of the "True Believer" party line and their responses to criticism, go here. For the best of the "denialist" party line, go here. For an excellent take on the politicization of science by Roger Pielke Jr., go here [pdf].

If anyone finds a good source for reality-based cost-benefit analysis of climate change strategies, feel free to supply it.

Uh....I'm confused as to why

Uh....I'm confused as to why you would remove the link to the Real Climate site. I posted it to show their counter-arguments to the points made in the video you posted.

While the Real Climate site does support Gore's view of global warming, I think if you read the site you'll find they are quite knowledgeable about climate science and try to back up their positions from a scientific standpoint (the comments are often quite interesting with some of the intelligent debates on various scientific issues).

I don't think they are 'political' in the sense that they support one party and are finding arguments to support their side. Rather, I think they are 'political' only in the sense that they support a position, and back a side (in this case, Gore) because of their mutual beliefs. I think there is a distinction between those two.

Anyways, I won't try and repost the link, since you could just delete it again, but I don't see how this helps the debate by removing "one side's" scientific arguments that specifically counter your post.

(And I apologize for the Anonymous posting---I'm not trying to 'stealth post' a partisan position here---but I was in a rush to the bar before the first post.)

Deleted because the purpose

Deleted because the purpose of this thread is not to lob the propaganda of the polar extremes back and forth (we could do that until the next ice age shows), because we don't do anonymous drive-bys (and thanks for ID'ing on the rebound!), and because I'm tired of Dr. Mann's self-serving BS after being caught screwing the scientific/statistical ewe, followed by his explanation of just helping that sheep through the fence--and Mann is one of the principals at RC. Yes, they're quite political. I did not say they were partisan.

As I said above, I don't need any more popularized opinions from politicized researchers defending their funding. And I won't host a link-fest duel. Anyone who wants to present rebuttal can do it themselves, in their own words, referring directly to the base research--NOT the dueling rants. Without directly referring to the base research it's all a "hot air" fest. From both sides. Like sitting in the middle of an abortion debate.

For the best of the "True Believer" party line and their responses to criticism, go here. For the best of the "denialist" party line, go here. For an excellent take on the politicization of science by Roger Pielke Jr., go here [pdf]. The current IPCC draft (as yet not officially released, and reportedly being edited to conform with the summary) can be found here.

I'm not fond of the usage of the "denialist" label for the dismissive skeptics (as opposed to the quantitative/methodological skeptics, of which I'm one, and which every real researcher should be). The "True Believers" are pretty darned adept at denialism and dismissal themselves. That the debate rages on shows in itself that the claimed "consensus" is bull.

Anyone who wants to present

Anyone who wants to present rebuttal can do it themselves, in their own words, referring directly to the base research

So you mean linking directly to actual papers when making an argument?

Yep. Or at least demonstrate

Yep. Or at least demonstrate that they understand the research and can properly refer it. You got a problem with that?

Nope, no problem. Sorry,

Nope, no problem. Sorry, I'm not trying to push your buttons, I'm just trying to understand what you find as acceptable. I like the RealClimate site because they also provide the links to the papers as their references, but it's not the only site I read.

And they never ever provide

And they never ever provide linkage to research that goes against the party line. I sympathize--the surface appeal of authority is strong.

But I'm really not interested in just dissing them, I just don't find any useful takes from them. They interpret the science to support their position, and ignore contrary evidence. As do the dismissive skeptics. The real science is enormously more complex and does not support claims of certainty.

What I find acceptable is rational consideration of the base research--complete to all its flaws and uncertainties. Once it starts getting filtered for others by the agendized, the flaws and uncertainties magically disappear, and noticing them again gets one labelled as a "denier."

Look at it this way, Mitch...

We're very demanding of our commenters. The lot of us who started Stubborn Facts love a good debate... but with the commenter, not the entirety of some website a commenter might point to. Just pointing to some website is essentially argument by authority. "I think this website is right" (on a subject of this magnitude) can really only be responded to by "well, I think this other website has it right." It doesn't give us a chance to really interact with the commenter, push each other's assumptions, reasoning, and conclusions.

There are plenty of sites out there filled with comments from people who obviously have never actually looked at the raw data underlying whatever issue is being discussed. We're looking to host a better quality discussion.

Anyway, that's us. Thanks for stopping by, and I hope you'll stick around and participate. We always welcome folks who understand the need to play by the rules...

But... You posted a video

But...

You posted a video that can be construed as 'propaganda' from one side. Is it not fair then to keep the link for the other side's direct counter-argument to that video?

Nope. I posted it because it

Nope. I posted it because it hasn't had nearly the exposure that Gore's propaganda has. "Fairness" arguments will lead to banning. Life isn't fair, and it would take a few networks worth of media to even come close to balancing the press that Gore has gotten. If you have an argument to make, make it yourself, and refer t othe base research with proper reference citation.

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