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Over at The Moderate Voice, they're discussing Governor Schwarzenegger's new universal insurance proposal for California. This reminded me of several of the many good conversations we had at Centerfield last year on Mitt Romney's similar proposal in Massachusetts.
But I think there are several small, not that politically difficult steps which can be taken which would reduce costs and improve access to health care. None of these, even taken all together, is the full solution to health care problems, but they can be done fairly cheaply and easily, without rubbing too hard against ideological fault lines. I say let's adopt these while we continue to haggle over the bigger picture. Please feel free to suggest your own in the comments.
2. End the subsidy that the U.S. gives to Europe for research and development of new prescription drugs.
I'm sure there are others. There are plenty of important debates to be had over the larger structural solutions which may be needed. Single-payer versus free market, mandatory insurance (subsidized for the poor) versus government-run. Those are good debates, and we need to have them. But they won't be settled soon. The above are relatively small steps which we should be able to adopt now without committing to any of the possible future big solutions. Let's start now.
why is number 1 good?
Obviously this is good from the POV of companies and consumers, both of whom experience savings. But couldn't this drive healthcare consumption even higher? If say, companies lower the prices offered to employees for health insurance, won't more folks pick the cadillac plans?
Basically, this would be a fairly big tax cut, right? More money in the pockets of businesses and individuals and a substantial decrease in revenue for the government? Or do you expect that over the long term it would have the effect of increasing government revenues elsewhere to compensate fully for the decrease due to the deduction? I mean, at some point, won't tax cuts fail to produce gov't revenue increases elsewhere? Obviously, if taxes are zero, then government revenue is basically zero, leaving aside fees. Right?
Or is this proposal more along the lines of using tax cuts to subsidize the right things, and health care is obviously worth subsidizing. In the short term, I'd be happier with such a proposal if it could be made revenue neutral, perhaps by taking away subsidies or deductions elsewhere.
For example, the deduction for home equity lines of credit. One of my buddies told me that you can take out a home equity line of credit and use the dough for whatever you want, and the loan is deductible. IMO, deductibility ought to hinge on whther the money is used for qualifying expenses. If someone adds 50k to their home-related debt to buy a Mercedes, I don't see why Uncle Sam ought to help.
Not that big a tax cut, no.
I'm going to withhold explaining free market economics 101, where price is a function of supply and demand and if demand goes up, so does price until the demand stabilizes, but that's why your first paragraph doesn't apply.
But the bigger point is that this wouldn't particularly save any businesses any money. Right now, they deduct the full cost they pay for their share of the employee's health insurance coverage. The problem is that the employee often can't deduct his share of the cost, and if the employee chooses to purchase insurance on his or her own, not through the employer, then the employee can generally not deduct any of the cost of that insurance.
For most perks your employer gives you, you must pay taxes on them. If you have a company car which you can use for personal as well as business purposes, then the value of the personal use of the car is taxable income to you. Not so with the perk of health insurance. You don't have to declare that as income, but the employer still gets to deduct the cost of providing it to you. The tax structure provides an extremely strong incentive for a system dominated by employer-provided health insurance to develop.
At the same time that employer-provided health insurance gets strong tax support, individually-purchased health insurance is strongly discouraged. If you are self-employed and buy your own insurance, you generally cannot deduct that cost and must pay income tax on it just as with all your income.
Frankly, you'd be an idiot to purchase health insurance on your own if you (or your spose) have an employer offering health insurance, so great are the tax incentives.
My proposal is simply to give all health insurance the same favorable tax treatment, by allowing individuals, as well as employers, to purchase health insurance with pre-tax dollars. It really should have very little impact on federal tax revenue, as the most probable result is simply shifting the purchase of insurance from one place to the other. To the extent it reduces taxes, it will only be reducing them on the self-employed or small-business employed who can't get employer-provided health insurance and must buy Blue Cross or something on their own.
As for home equity loans, I agree with you generally, but that's off topic to my point.
Why bucyrus is right
Sorry, Pat, you're wrong about the supply and demand reasoning WRT healthcare. The reason is simple: healthcare does not operate within the sort of market environment you're envisioning. Healthcare provision is a cartel. Bucyrus is quite right: under the scheme you've suggested prices would rise.
Look at it this way. Imagine an industry that has the power to limit entry. Now imagine that the government injects a substantial amount of money into the system. What would happen? Answer: essentially, those in the industry would prevent entry into the industry and give themselves raises without increasing output. That's pretty much what happened in healthcare between 1965 and 1980. What most commentators (except, of course, Milton Friedman) have missed in analysis of the healthcare industry is that outputs per input have been falling for some time now.
And it's the supply bottleneck that prevents what you envision from lowering prices. If demand falls, healthcare providers—unwilling to take the pay cut that reduction in revenue implieswill simply raise the prices to make up for the shortfall. There's little competition in the industry—regulation, assymmetrical information, and custom essentially prohibits it. What prevents prices from rising even higher isn't the operations of a market but fear of regulation.
Check over at my place. I've written about this stuff pretty extensively.
Agree and disagree,
Agree and disagree, Dave.
Bucyrus is quite right: under the scheme you've suggested prices would rise.
The overall results of the items Pat lists (or even any one of them) would be both lower "line item" prices and more efficient use of available health care services. But that wouldn't lower overall system cost. The health care market is demand-driven. We can move the pieces around, make our spending more rational and efficient, but as a society we'll continue to spend every penny the market will bear. End result--more services provided and more efficiently, but NO lower overall system cost. If we get prices lower we'll just consume more.
We can maybe slow the rate of cost increase some. We can get more for our dollar, we can get more overall, we can get better distribution of delivery, but we won't spend less. We can blame the providers as much as we like, but they can get away with their charges because as a society we're willing to pay them. That hoary old maxim of economics--demand is unlimited, resources are not.
"Better, faster, cheaper...pick any two out of three."
Hi, Dave...
Thanks for stopping by, Dave. We always enjoy new perspectives.
My supply and demand comment was directed specifically at bucyrus' comment about employers lowering the cost of health insurance, consumers suddenly buying more of it, increasing the problem. I wasn't, in this instance, making a more general point about the more complicated effects of supply and demand as they relate to health care.
I like to call the system that we have now "privatized socialized medicine". We have all the worst parts of both capitalism and socialism thrown into one lovely package. There's a profit interest for doctors, hospitals, and insurance companies, while there's little price competition because the consumers are largely insulated from making decisions based on price competition. If you've got a decent job, you pay money to the HMO chosen by your employer, then you pick from a list of participating doctors, all of whom are paid the same by the HMO. Then you pay only a very modest co-pay for each particular service rendered to you. The only price competition is between the insurance company and your employer. There's not even much competition between the doctors and the insurance companies, because there are so many formularies and rigid fee schedules, with the big HMOs having tremendous bargaining power.
That's why I think the ultimate solution is to inject market forces back into the system, not just increase the private and governmental regulation and control of the industry. I favor decoupling health insurance from employment, providing some type of refundable tax credit for the purchase of health insurance. I would also provide a structure which would encourage new types of insurance products, such as a "chronic illness" insurance, which would pay out if you were diagnosed with, say, diabetes, and which would continue to pay your claims after diagnosis for as long as you needed care.
I'll stop by and check out your posts at The Glittering Eye; maybe we can get a good cross-blog discussion going on this extremely important topic.
While I agree
that injecting market forces into the system would be a good idea I think the system is so far gone that's not politically possible.
For it to be otherwise and to accomplish both of the objectives (universal access and lower costs) you've got to believe that consumers will be willing to pay more out of their own pockets for less and that doctors and hospitals are willing to take pay cuts.
Your phrase privatized socialized medicine is apt. 60% or more of all healthcare dollars come from the public purse.
As I said, you can get lower
As I said, you can get lower prices, what you won't get is lower costs.
More on the California
More on the California proposal in today's WSJ.
Pat's proposals
1)Tax deductability. That's fine. Remember, the costs of health insurance are so high that those on the lower end of the wage scale cannot/ will not pay. Then you run into the issue of ?forced insurance (see Mass. or Cal.)
2)European subsidy. Again fine, although the "new drug" pipeline is already slowing. The looming problem is an aging population that almost by definition is on at least four Rx drugs (and they're usually costly one like Plavix)
3) I'm a big believer in prevention. Just remember its has some interesting "double-edged" effects. Living longer from lowering your cholesterol "some" and getting your colonscopy at 50 may lead to you living longer, "loving life" and fighting your chronic leukemia at 85 with all of those wonderful new (and expensive) cancer drugs.
4) Incentivise physicians. Remember, without a new, large source of dollars it is LESS THAN A ZERO SUM GAME. When you look at "pay for performance" the common tactic is to "not cut" reimbursement if you have good quality indicators.
I'll say it till I'm blue in the face. We Americans have a large appetite for healthcare. Unfortunately we've been paying Mickey D prices while eating at Ruth Chris. Not only do we need to start switching restaurants and pay more of the bill, we have to eat out less often.
Chris
additional
AS an example. In today's news from Modern Healthcare
So we're going to get lower prices so we can consume/pay for more. Again, its LESS THAN A ZERO SUM GAME.
Hey, Chris!
I was hoping you'd stop by.
I certainly agree that the tax deductibility isn't going to solve the problem of access for the people on the low end of the wage scale. But I do think that restructuring to remove the strong incentive for employer-provided care and removing the disincentive for individually-purchased care will foster a greater market for insurance products targeted at the lower end of the scale. Not the full bells-and-whistles policies, of course, but at least some keep-you-alive-and-out-of-bankruptcy policies.
As for prevention, I pointed out in my comments over at the TMV thread that it doesn't necessarily save money for the system as a whole, even where it makes the cost of treating particular individuals lower. If it costs $100,000 for preventative medicine for a group of 100 to keep the 2 people who would otherwise need heart surgery (for example) from needing it, but it would only cost $50,000 for the heart surgery for the 2 people, then preventative care actually costs the system more money, even though the preventative care only costs $1,000 per individual, while the emergency care costs $25,000 apiece.
Would you like to do a guest post for us on your prescription to wean us off of our bloated, trans-fat health care diet, so that we can pay, maybe, Outback prices for Outback quality?
health care
though I'm not a big fan of Outback, I would be glad to post (though I'm not paid to create health policy so beware of amateurs.) Just let me know how I "guest post"
Chris