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Whatever
...I say goodbye: Outgoing Majority Leader Harry Reid (he doesn't know about the outgoing part yet) hints that the Senate will expel newly reelected Senator Ted Stevens. Excellent news. For reasons I noted here, Governor Palin will be able to appoint a replacement, the ballot initiative to the contrary notwithstanding, although she need not do so.
This may provoke calls for her to decline to appoint a replacement and run in the special election herself, to better position herself for a 2012 run. I think that's a mistake; the claim that she lacked experience because she hadn't been a Senator or Washington insider was always a canard. Being a Governor was and is a better qualification for the Presidency than being a Senator (although, obviously, to the extent that the Presidency is sui generis, the most experienced candidate on the 2012 ballot will be President Obama), so the best way to position herself for 2012 is to stay put and excel. As I said last week, "for now, the best thing [Palin] can do for herself and us is go back to Alaska, continue doing the outstanding job that brought her to our attention in the first place, and develop a cohesive articulation of what she believes."
I also noted in that post that she should write a book, which segues nicely to this story: I want her to write and publishers want her to, too. I'm not interested in a tell-all memoir of the campaign unless it's done à la Bob Bork's Tempting of America where it's a second act to a more substantive first act. While her personal appeal suggests that she'd be well-advised to write a "this I believe" that is interwoven with her own story, it should still amount to a manifesto. She should be a serious contender in 2012, and this would be a big step towards taking hold of that mantle.
Added: ADN has this must-read article outlining some of the difficulties Palin may face over the next two or more years.
Post facto:
Going, going... (1/12/10)
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In my (never humble) opinion...
...the only reason that anyone claims to prefer a Senator this time around is because Obama and Biden were/are Senators. I don't think she would get much more foreign policy experience in the Senate, and the pipeline job will still have her interacting with Canada in a substantive, executive manner. More than that, I think she can amass a much more substantial record in four years in the governorship. She's already done quite a bit in two years, and it won't do to have her in Washington, lucky to be able to author a single piece of legislation over the next half-decade.
She could take this opportunity to showcase her capabilities for appointing someone on the national level. If she found someone who would decline to bring pork-barrel spending to Alaska, and whose earmarks were limited to the federal government's role in the state (IIRC, it controls more than half the land there), then Palin would have another check mark on her resume.
next role
My impression has been that folks calling for Palin to run for the Senate think it's important for her have that level of national profile, which let's face it a governor doesn't necessarily get. Not arguing that point here, just saying that's my understanding of the rationale. In general, governorships do tend to be better footstools to the Presidency, because you can take top credit for anything good that happens there, and you don't accumulation a voting record for opponents to spin. (Insert Obama dig here.)
While it's a good idea for Palin to try to better articulate her supposed vision in a book, that won't do any good unless you can cogently articulate it in person. But if she real;ly vares fervently about national policy as she has seemed to contend,and if she thinks its so important to oppose the policies of Obama, it seems to me she ought to be prepared to be a gadfly for the minority in the Senate. Especially if McCain retires. The spot of being the main mouthpiece for the principled congressional opposition to Obama's fiscal policies over the next 4 years really ought to be considered a prize peach if you have national ambitions and are, fervent that Obama is poised to take us the wrong way.
I think it's fair to say that the caliber of the person who takes this spot will reflect the conservative conventional wisdom on our current prospects of overcoming the issues the nation currently faces. Who is the person the GOP has who is sure about which policies are right, optimistic about going another way, and eager to take this on? Where is the bright, articulate conservative who can't wait to have this fight?
If Palin doesn't run, I take her answer to be "not me." It occurs to me that Romney needs a job.__________
I have often said, and oftener think, that this world is a comedy for those who think, and a tragedy for those who feel. -Horace Walpole
Brian, are you suggesting
Brian,
are you suggesting Romney move to Alaska. How will he keep his hair from getting mussed with all of that putting on and taking off of wool caps?
Chris
My impression has been that
I think it's more that they're buying into the theory that "national" experience (or foreign policy experience) are prerequisites of running for the Presidency - or, at very least, they're trying to preempt the claim that Palin's inadequate for want of such. I never bought that, myself. Still, I've come to realize that when some GOPers were criticizing Obama for lack of experience before the election, what they meant was that he lacked experience in foreign policy and so forth, whereas, when I criticized him for lack of experience, I meant lack of executive experience. That distinction became clear as putative conservatives started making claims that I found bizarre about Palin's inexperience and how McCain had forfeited the experience card by picking her. I just couldn't comprehend that until one day a lightbulb went off that although these folks and I had both been talking about experience, we were on totally different wavelengths.
Agreed, but a prerequisite to speaking clearly about what you believe is having what you believe straight. Part of the reason I write is because I find it useful for getting straight what I think about a subject. It's real easy to believe something that doesn't quite hold water when it only exists in your head, and the discipline of having to make an argument for a position in black and white on the page is merciless on fuzzy, amorphous thinking. The very process of setting out what she thinks in words will help firm up what she thinks, which will in turn help her express it more clearly.
It's certainly possible that she'll fall short, but that's not a reason not to try.
I concur
I concur with your point about writing to hone your thinking entirely, Simon.
To the extent that Palin actually puts a lot of thought and effort into writing a book, I think it makes a lot of sense. And as far as having someone work closely with her on that book goes, I don't object to that as long as the person is there to identify Palin's ideas and help her string them together logically. If THAT is what happens, I think it helps her pass through the crucible she needs to pass through.
But if it veers towards spoonfed cant, if it's much like someone else writing a speech and you putting your name to it, then I start to frown. She must do more than recite her lines, no matter how tried and true conservatives believe them to be, Ultimately she must demonstrate a deeper understanding of them by showing with ease and facility (and transfer!!) how they apply to current issues Americans face. For example, Newt Gingrich would have no trouble in a live forum with explaining how a given conservative philosophy applied to a novel situation.
Palin can't be a mere disciple, I think. I think she needs to show a certain level of mastery, ease, comfort...call it what you want. Don't you agree that this is what the GOP should be looking for in whoever its next champion is?_________
I have often said, and oftener think, that this world is a comedy for those who think, and a tragedy for those who feel. -Horace Walpole